Model Rating: 90/100 | Win probability: 30% | Fair: 7/3 | Available: 10/3 | Grade: A
Shiffra looks well treated returning to handicap company after breaking her duck at Lingfield in June.
That victory has since been strengthened because Pureis King, who finished clear with her, won his next two starts. That means the race was almost certainly stronger than the ordinary classified-race label might imply. Shiffra was comfortably clear of the remainder and now runs from a handicap mark of just 51.
Seamus Cronin again takes off 5lb, further improving her effective weight position. She has also been given almost two months since that success rather than being rushed back, which is reasonable for a filly who may now be progressing after finally getting her head in front.
Crazy Plan is the obvious danger after an eye-catching Wolverhampton performance, but there are two questions: she is...

Model Rating: 88/100 | Win probability: 20% | Fair: 4/1 | Available: 5/1 | Grade: A-
Perfidia has been more consistent this season than the raw form figures might initially suggest and comes here in a race where returning to a mile looks important.
He has already won twice this year and races from 62, which is 5lb higher than his last winning mark but not beyond a level from which he has previously shown himself competitive. Cian Horgan’s 3lb claim offsets part of that burden.
His latest run is reasonably easy to forgive. He was stepped up in trip, raced too freely early and unsurprisingly failed to finish his race as strongly as desired. Returning to the mile is much more suitable given the bulk of his better recent form has come from approximately 1m to 1m1f.
Tim Easterby’s horses often improve for getting back into their correct conditions rather than through obvious class drops...

Model Rating: 86/100 | Model win probability: 7% | Fair: 13/1 | Available: 25/1 | Grade: A- / EW
Valentine Catcher is the speculative play, but there are strong handicap reasons for believing 25/1 is too large.
He is currently rated 19lb below his last winning mark, although that does slightly flatter the statistic because he was demoted after passing the post first at Pontefract last season. More relevant is that he has already produced competitive efforts from marks in the mid-60s this year and is now significantly below that level.
There is also useful Carlisle evidence. He finished third here in May, and earlier in the campaign was runner-up at Pontefract behind Diamont Katie. The value of that run has increased because the winner subsequently advertised the form, while Valentine Catcher also finished ahead of Great, who went on to win twice.
His last couple of efforts have been...

Model Rating: 91/100 | Win probability: 23% | Fair: 10/3 | Available: 6/1 | Grade: A+ Value
Point Of Contact is one of tomorrow’s most interesting handicappers because there is a strong case for ignoring his latest Sandown effort.
He had previously won a 16-runner York handicap in June and is only 3lb higher here. That York success matters because it showed he can operate successfully in a proper competitive handicap environment, and he remains relatively lightly raced for this level with only ten previous starts. He also performed with credit in strong big-field handicaps last season.
Tomorrow brings two important changes: a drop in class and a return to a proven trip. PJ McDonald rides for Andrew Balding, and Balding’s historical Hamilton record is particularly noteworthy — the source records an all-time strike rate of around 30% at the track, including two winners and a second...

Model Rating: 93/100 | Win probability: 36% | Fair: 7/4 | Available: 5/2 | Grade: A+
Thunderous Love is the strongest overall profile tomorrow. She was arguably the best horse at the weights when runner-up at Salisbury last time, committing for home a long way out in a strongly-run race and only being picked off late by a filly who has since won again. That gives the performance considerably more substance than simply reading “second” beside her name.
The return to Nottingham is a major positive. She is already a two-time course-and-distance winner, and her wider record at tracks such as Nottingham, Newbury and Salisbury suggests she is particularly effective where tactical speed and a finishing change of gear matter. Timeform have also flagged her as a Horse In Focus, which is consistent with the model’s view that her latest run was better than the bare result.
The key model factor...