Model Rating: 92/100 | Win Probability: 20% | Fair Odds: 4/1 | Current: 11/2 | Grade: A
Geryon has quietly put together one of the strongest recent profiles in this race.
His current sequence reads 4-4-2-4-1-2, and the key pieces of form are his Group 3 victory at Leopardstown followed by another very strong effort last time. He has shown that nine furlongs sits comfortably within his range and, unlike several rivals, he arrives without any major question over current form.
York’s 1m177yd configuration should suit a horse who can travel before sustaining his effort rather than relying upon one sharp burst. The race also contains enough potential pace to prevent it becoming a messy sprint.
Damysus is the obvious danger at around 11/4–3/1, especially with first-time cheekpieces, and the Gosden stable has an outstanding recent York strike rate. Racing TV’s current stats show John &amp...

Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 15% | Fair Odds: 17/3 | Available: 8/1–9/1 | Grade: A+ Value
Into The Light is one of the most interesting staying three-year-olds in the Melrose because his recent improvement coincided with the application of cheekpieces.
His form reads 1-2-2-0-1, and that latest Goodwood success represented a significant step forward. He travelled smoothly over 1m3f before seeing the trip out strongly to beat Devil’s Peak by nearly two lengths. He now runs from OR96, carries 9st and retains William Buick for Charlie Appleby.
The step up to 1m6f asks another question, but his pedigree offers encouragement and the way he finished at Goodwood suggests extra stamina rather than speed is what will unlock further improvement.
The ground is also worth considering. His two wins have come on quicker surfaces and the all-weather, so good-to-soft is not completely...

Model Rating: 94/100 | Win Probability: 23% | Fair Odds: 10/3 | Available: 11/2 | Grade: A+
Zavateri is the strongest blend of ability and price on Saturday’s card.
He was one of the leading juveniles last season, winning four of his first five races and ending that sequence with a Group 1 National Stakes victory at the Curragh. That already tells us he belongs at this level rather than needing to make an enormous leap in class. He returned this season with a narrow second in the Greenham before missing the Guineas through a setback.
His Sussex Stakes run is better than the bare fifth suggests. Returning from another break, he broke awkwardly from stall 11, became trapped behind horses and only found racing room when the major players had already committed. He still finished little more than four lengths behind horses rated in the 120s, including Bow Echo, Gstaad and Opera Ballo...

Model Rating: 90/100 | Win Probability: 11% | Fair Odds: 8/1 | Available: 12/1 | Grade: A Value
The Ebor is not a race where I want to pretend anything is bombproof, but Hopewell Rock has one of the strongest improving handicap profiles in the field.
His form reads 2-9-3-6-1, and the latest Goodwood performance is the reason he makes the portfolio. Stepping up to 1m6f for the first time, he won a strong 13-runner Class 2 handicap and reportedly broke the course record. He now comes here effectively 1lb well in under his revised mark.
That Goodwood run suggests the longer distance has unlocked substantial improvement. He carries 9st 7lb from OR101, which leaves him in a much more manageable part of the handicap than the topweights.
There is one genuine concern: his Goodwood win came on good-to-firm and his previous heavy-ground Doncaster effort was poor. However, he won a novice on...