Model Rating: 86/100 | Grade: A- / EW
Ard As A Rock is the speculative selection of the day, but his previous form has more substance than his profile may initially suggest.
He ran at 33/1 in a strong Newbury maiden last month and showed plenty of early speed, leading for much of the race before weakening only late. That performance came in a sizeable field and gives him valuable race experience against stronger opposition than he is likely to meet in many ordinary restricted events.
Beverley is a track where that early tactical speed can be a real asset. Racing TV describes the course as favouring horses ridden close to the pace because of the downhill bend into a relatively short home straight; in sprints, positioning can become even more important.
The Times’ current race analysis also selects Ard As A Rock in this race, although the model decision is based primarily on his own...

Model Rating: 89/100 | Win Probability: 22% | Fair Odds: 7/2 | Forecast: 5/1 | Grade: A / Value
Obscenity is the more interesting price play on the Irish card.
His recent form figures include two wins and a second, and he is already a course-and-distance winner. That course evidence matters at Gowran, where positioning and the ability to handle the turns can count for plenty. He races here from an official mark of 86 carrying 9st, with Dylan Browne McMonagle riding for Joseph O’Brien.
His latest run was disappointing, but his underlying figures remain strong: he has posted a TS of 96 and RPR of 103, numbers that compare favourably with horses priced around him. Star Harbour has an RPR of 104 but is eight years old and more exposed; Dallas Star is rated 100 but carries top weight; War Rooms won last time but runs from 89.
The main concern is stall 9 of 11, because there is a risk of...

Model Rating: 90/100 | Win Probability: 28% | Fair Odds: 5/2 | Forecast: 100/30 | Grade: A

Skydance is the strongest established form horse in the Gowran Listed race according to the model.

She arrives with an official rating of 105 and an RPR of 108, the highest RPR in the field, and she receives the eight-pound weight-for-age allowance from the older mares. That is a significant structural advantage in this race because the three-year-olds carry 9st 1lb while the older horses carry 9st 9lb.

Her recent profile of 2-6-5-1-3 is also much more reassuring than several of her rivals. Lemsairbat is clearly dangerous with an OR of 98, TS 103 and RPR 107, while Minerva is rated 101 and represents Ballydoyle. But Skydance’s combination of recent winning form, superior RPR and favourable age allowance makes her the horse I want at the prices.

Model Rating: 91/100 | Grade: A
Remi Mae deserves more credit than her official recent record gives her. She was first past the post at Nottingham last time before being demoted following a stewards’ enquiry after drifting left and making contact close home. In pure performance terms she effectively demonstrated that she was capable of winning the race, and she did so against seven rivals on good-to-firm ground.
That Nottingham run followed a respectable third at Chester over further, where she raced keenly and did not see the extended seven furlongs out particularly strongly. Dropping back to six furlongs therefore makes plenty of sense, and her earlier Salisbury form also shows that she handles this track and quick conditions.
The model likes the combination of trip change, recent underlying performance and remaining upside. Andrew Balding’s runners are rarely easy to underestimate...