Model Rating: 89/100 | Win Probability: 40% | Fair Odds: 6/4 | Available: 15/8 | Grade: A
Chasing Blues has taken a significant step forward since returning from a long absence.
He came back after 14 months off with an encouraging fourth at Wexford before improving again three weeks later when second over approximately 2m1f at the same venue. He travelled well enough there to put himself into contention and was only headed close home.
That gives him a sizeable experience and fitness advantage over several of tomorrow's opposition. Henry de Bromhead keeps him in maiden company rather than immediately pursuing handicaps, while Darragh O'Keeffe takes the ride.
He isn't completely bombproof. Timeform notes that he has not always looked entirely straightforward, and Seven Towers represents an obvious threat for Gavin Cromwell after showing promise previously.
At 15/8, though, Chasing...

Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 30% | Fair Odds: 7/3 | Forecast: 100/30 | Grade: A+ Value
Amerilis has one of the strongest combinations of current form and underlying performance figures on the Irish cards.
Her recent record includes two runner-up finishes, and her current RPR of 72 and Topspeed figure of 62 compare extremely well with this field from a handicap mark of 67. She carries 9st 13lb and is drawn five of twelve, which gives Donagh O'Connor plenty of tactical flexibility in a five-furlong race where early positioning will be important.
What particularly attracts the model is that she is not relying on old form. Her latest second demonstrates that she is currently competitive from this sort of rating, and she now meets a field containing several horses with either less convincing recent profiles or bigger questions surrounding their current level.
Cashel Blue is...

Model Rating: 89/100 | Model Win Probability: 18% | Fair Odds: 9/2 | Grade: A / Value
Croupier is the horse I want to take a chance with in one of tomorrow's most competitive handicaps.
This is not a selection based simply on recent finishing positions. The attraction is his handicap position relative to his established ability. Racing Post's current analysis describes him as well handicapped and makes him their selection in what they acknowledge is a wide-open race.
That distinction is important. Horses like Fifty Nifty, Molly Mac and the three-year-old Brocklesby Bill bring more immediately attractive form, but the market knows that. Croupier's appeal lies in the possibility that his current mark significantly underestimates what he can still produce if conditions fall correctly.
Newmarket's straight mile should allow him time to find a rhythm, and a properly-run race would help...

Model Rating: 93/100 | Win Probability: 47% | Fair Odds: 11/10 | Forecast: 5/4 | Grade: A+
Free World is the strongest pure winning profile tomorrow. He remains very lightly raced for a five-year-old and produced a major step forward when winning comfortably at Catterick last week.
The key handicap angle is that he now races under a penalty but is officially 4lb well-in compared with the future mark already allotted to him by the handicapper. In simple terms, if he reproduces the level of that latest performance, tomorrow's weight theoretically leaves him better treated than he will be when his revised rating takes effect. Racing Post's current card specifically highlights that advantage and makes him a clear favourite at around 5/4.
He also has relatively little mileage compared with several exposed stayers in opposition, meaning there is a realistic possibility that the Catterick...