Model Rating: 92/100 | Win Probability: 27% | Fair Odds: 11/4 | Grade: A+
Major Neigh Sayer is very interesting because his profile is almost the opposite of many horses in this race: he remains highly unexposed.
He has had very little racing and showed genuine ability on his debut at Ripon, finishing third and recording an RPR of 72 despite clearly being inexperienced. His trainer George Scott is operating at a 25% strike rate over the most recent 14-day period shown on Racing Post, which is a strong current stable signal.
He has also now been gelded and given time to freshen up, which can be particularly significant with lightly raced sprinters who have previously shown ability without putting everything together mentally. Tomorrow therefore represents a potential improvement point rather than merely another run from the same horse.
The obvious concern is experience. Newbury’s...

Model Rating: 89/100 | Fair Odds: 5/1 | Target: 7/1+ | Grade: A / EW
Newmarket’s annual greys-only handicap tends to produce a competitive field, but Archduke Ferdinand has several model factors in his favour.
The July Course is a track where horses who can travel comfortably behind the speed and sustain their effort are often rewarded, and his racing style should suit the setup. More importantly, Shay Farmer’s 5lb claim materially improves his effective weight and could be particularly valuable in a tightly matched Class 4 handicap.
This is not a horse the model makes overwhelmingly likely to win. The attraction is the expected price relative to his chance. The six-furlong straight track limits some of the traffic risks found on turning courses and gives his rider more freedom to react to where the strongest pace develops.
The concern is that greys-only handicaps often contain...

Model Rating: 88/100 | Win Probability: 16% | Fair Odds: 21/4 | Grade: A-
Scoville is another selection where the model is looking deeper than recent finishing positions.
His last two runs have come over a mile in major handicaps, and he has travelled well for a long way before failing to finish as strongly as required. Dropping back to seven furlongs could therefore be exactly what he needs. The shorter distance allows him to use his cruising speed without asking him to sustain it for the final furlong of a mile.
Newbury also suits horses who can travel within themselves before making a sustained challenge, rather than needing a sharp bend or very short straight.
This remains a strong Class 2 handicap, so there are dangers everywhere, and I would not want Scoville anywhere near favourite territory. But if the market offers 7/1–8/1 or bigger, the combination of class relief in...

Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 19% | Fair Odds: 17/4 | Grade: A
This is a very strong Hungerford Stakes, so the model is not pretending any horse has a dominant probability.
Never So Brave sets an excellent established standard with an RPR of 126, while Lake Forest, Marvelman, Flora Of Bermuda, Paborus and the three-year-olds give the race serious depth. Racing Post currently lists Symbol Of Honour on an official rating of 110, with a Topspeed figure of 104 and an RPR of 120.
What makes Symbol Of Honour interesting is his recent trajectory. His form sequence ends 3-1, indicating that he has begun to rediscover the level expected of him, and he already has winning course form at Newbury.
Charlie Appleby’s runners in races of this nature have to be respected, but the model is not selecting him simply because of connections. His combination of recent improvement, tactical pace...