Model Rating: 92/100 | Win Probability: 34% | Fair Odds: 15/8 | Current: 9/4 | Grade: A+
Von Krolock comes here in the strongest current form of this field and looks capable of following up his recent Lingfield win despite carrying a penalty. His recent sequence of 2-3-1-6-2-1 includes two wins earlier in the season and a comfortable victory only six days ago, when he showed the benefit of having a recent run behind him. He is officially rated 56, carries 9st 9lb and Christian Howarth takes off another 3lb.
The obvious question is turf. His recent wins have come on the all-weather and he is still searching for a first turf success, but that does not mean he is ineffective on grass — he previously went close on turf in Ireland. Brighton’s six-furlong configuration should also play to his ability to travel prominently rather than requiring a huge finishing burst.
The pace should be...

Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 37% | Fair Odds: 7/4 | Current: 2/1 | Grade: A
Blakefell is still lightly raced after only four starts and has progressed almost every time. He got off the mark at Catterick, improved again when chasing home a useful prospect at Leicester and then returned to Catterick last time, where he finished third over six furlongs despite still looking inexperienced. His form now reads 3-1-2-3.
The move back to seven furlongs looks particularly positive. His latest run suggested six furlongs was sharp enough, and he has already shown that the extra distance helps him settle into a rhythm. He is a previous course-and-distance winner and runs from OR78 carrying 9st 7lb, with Jason Hart booked for Ivan Furtado.
His handicap mark requires another step forward, but that is much easier to envisage from a four-start three-year-old than from the exposed older...

Model Rating: 90/100 | Win Probability: 27% | Fair Odds: 11/4 | Target: 3/1+ | Grade: A
Tai Hang Pegasus is beginning to put everything together.
His form of 4-7-6-2-3-1 shows a steady progression rather than one isolated good run, and he produced a clear career-best when winning at Brighton last time over a mile and a half. That was also his first attempt against older horses, making the ease of the victory particularly encouraging.
The handicapper has raised him 6lb to OR78, but he remains a three-year-old receiving weight from the older horses and carries only 9st 1lb. That age allowance is significant over this trip in late summer.
Dropping slightly from 1m4f to Windsor’s 1m3f99yd should not inconvenience him. He settles well enough and showed at Brighton that stamina is not an issue. Windsor tends to reward horses able to hold a position before building momentum around the home...

Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 25% | Fair Odds: 3/1 | Current: 4/1 | Grade: A+ Value
Bunting is the most interesting price on Monday’s card.
The Willie Mullins-trained six-year-old has not won since his hurdling debut, but his latest Galway run showed considerably more than the finishing position suggests. He finished sixth of 20 in a competitive handicap hurdle over 2m6f on good-to-soft ground and shaped as though he was returning towards his better form. Connections now send him over fences.
This is obviously a different test. He drops sharply in trip to 2m1f, while Monday will be his first public start over fences. But Mullins does not need to run him here simply for experience, and this relatively small six-runner chase represents a much more controlled introduction than a large-field handicap.
Danny Mullins rides and Bunting receives 5lb from Addragoole and...