This is probably the best pure value bet on the York card.
The Lost King returned to form in a big way when winning over this exact course and distance in July. He travelled notably strongly through that race and already had excuses for his Royal Ascot defeat, where his positioning left him with too much to do. He now comes back to a track and trip we know suit him.
He races from OR102, so another career-best is required, but he remains much less exposed than several of the established handicappers around him. Oisin Murphy rides for Andrew Balding, and proven York form is worth something in a 17-runner Heritage Handicap where plenty can go wrong.
Centigrade is potentially the most talented runner and is only 5/2 after winning on his return from a 20-month absence. However, that price asks us to assume he will make a big step forward on handicap debut. The Lost King is 10/1, despite...

Satellite Of Love is unbeaten after two starts, carries 9st 2lb and is drawn six. This is a huge 22-runner sales race, so I don't want a short price, but he has the profile of a colt who could still be considerably better than his existing form.

Clive Cox's colt has already shown enough tactical speed for six furlongs and, importantly, Cox has an outstanding recent record in this particular sales race — one current preview notes that he has won the previous three editions. The trainer also saddles Pride Of Toledo and Secret Society, but Rossa Ryan is on Satellite Of Love.

Sun Goddess is the obvious horse to beat after winning three of her last four and is already around 10/11, but carrying 9st 4lb and taking odds-on in a 22-runner juvenile event does not appeal to me.

Satellite Of Love around 6/1 gives us far more room.

Model: 91/100 | Fair ~9/2

I prefer looking beyond the two short-priced runners here.
Libertango is 7/4 and Star Of State around 3/1, but Wild Blossom is roughly 15/2–17/2. Her form figures are unusual — 1-0-1 — but the latest win demonstrates that the Royal Ascot disappointment was not representative of her true level. Karl Burke now brings her into a Group 2 and James Doyle takes over.
Burke has an excellent reputation with juvenile fillies and, crucially, today's softer surface could make this a more searching six-furlong test. Wild Blossom looks capable of benefiting if the favourites get racing early and turn the Lowther into a stamina test rather than a pure speed contest.
There are several dangers — Livenka has won her last two, Moonrise is 2-from-3 and Libertango brings the strongest obvious profile — so the model probability is only around 16%.
But at 8/1 territory, we don't need her to be...