Model Rating: 94/100 | Win Probability: 31% | Fair Odds: 9/4 | Target: 3/1+ | Grade: A+
High Fibre has been transformed since joining James Owen and looks capable of completing a three-timer under both codes.
He first took a big step forward when winning a 13-runner handicap hurdle at Market Rasen in July, beating Indemnity by 2¾ lengths and putting more than 20 lengths between himself and tomorrow’s rival Moon Chime. He then switched back to the Flat at Newmarket and confirmed that improvement by winning over two miles from OR79, beating Percy Shelley by 1¼ lengths with the third another 7½ lengths away.
That Newmarket performance is particularly relevant because tomorrow is another genuine staying Flat test. High Fibre has been raised 5lb to OR84, but that does not look excessive given how strongly the latest form was strung out.
He also already has useful York evidence. On his...

Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 45% | Fair Odds: 6/5 | Market: 6/4 | Grade: A
Moab is more of a strong-probability bet than a major value selection.
He remains a maiden over hurdles, but that needs context. His hurdling form includes 2-2-4-3 in recent completed starts, and his third in a 24-runner Punchestown handicap hurdle in April represents comfortably stronger evidence than most of tomorrow’s opponents possess.
Fitness is another advantage.
Moab returned from four months away with a respectable Flat run only 16 days ago, meaning he should arrive significantly sharper than some rivals returning from longer absences. Sporting Life/Timeform also identify that recent Flat outing as a useful preparation and make him their selection.
His OR110 establishes a useful benchmark.
Downtown Nashville is interesting on hurdling debut after making the frame in Irish points and...

Model Rating: 92/100 | Win Probability: 40% | Fair Odds: 6/4 | Market: 15/8 | Grade: A+ Value
Gata Ban returns to a course and distance at which she produced one of her best performances this summer.
She won at Worcester over 2m7f in June by 8½ lengths from an 11-runner field off OR82, before following up just four days later over tomorrow’s exact Fontwell C&D. She had to battle much harder on that occasion but still won, beating Special John with tomorrow’s rival Edgewell six lengths further behind.
Her handicap mark has understandably risen, and she now races from around OR91, so the handicapper has taken account of those wins.
However, her latest Worcester fourth came in stronger company and was not a bad run. She finished around nine lengths behind Axel Bleue over 2m7f and now returns to the course where her jumping and stamina have already been proven.
Fontwell is...

Model Rating: 93/100 | Win Probability: 31% | Fair Odds: 9/4 | Market: 11/4 | Grade: A+
America Queen brings a very strong combination of improving three-year-old form and proven York form.
Richard Hughes’s filly produced a very respectable effort over this course and distance in July, finishing fourth in a Group 3 and beaten only around 1¾ lengths. She then took another significant step forward at Pontefract three weeks ago, winning a six-furlong conditions race by four lengths as the 11/10 favourite.
That victory has pushed her official rating to OR108, while Racing Post figures include an RPR of 123 and Topspeed of 101. Those numbers put her firmly in the mix even before allowing for the possibility of further improvement from a three-year-old filly who has only had a handful of starts.
She receives weight from the colts and older horses, carrying 9st, and Daniel Tudhope takes...