Model Rating: 91/100 | Grade: A / Value
This year’s Jacques le Marois looks unusually open after the absence of Bow Echo, with More Thunder taking over near the head of the market and Precise also a major player. Racing Post describes it as a very competitive renewal, which is exactly the kind of Group 1 where price becomes crucial rather than simply siding with the favourite.
Rayif interests me most because his price is allowing for more uncertainty than I think his actual chance deserves. He has already shown a level of mile form good enough to belong in this company, and a straight mile at Deauville should give him every opportunity to travel into the race without the tactical complications of a turning track. In a field where several of the market leaders are relatively closely matched on ability, getting around 13/2 about a horse with a genuine Group 1 chance is much more...

Model Rating: 89/100 | Win Probability: 23% | Fair Odds: 10/3 | Forecast: 4/1 | Grade: A / Value
Grayrobin is where the model differs most interestingly from the Curragh market.
His debut for Archie Watson at Nottingham was disappointing, but his profile has completely changed since joining Kate McGivern in Ireland. He dropped to five furlongs and improved immediately, winning at Bellewstown, before confirming the progress by winning again at Cork. He therefore enters tomorrow chasing a hat-trick, with his last two performances both demonstrating that the minimum trip suits him extremely well.
That improvement is reflected in his current figures. Racing Post lists him with an official rating of 92 and RPR of 95, and he has proven himself on both good and good-to-firm ground. Chris Hayes rides again.
The market is headed by Armor Supreme at around a 9/4 forecast, and her peak figures...

Model Rating: 93/100 | Win Probability: 39% | Fair Odds: 13/8 | Grade: A+
America Queen has been competing at a substantially higher level than tomorrow’s Listed assignment and that class drop is the single strongest angle in Sunday’s model.
Her juvenile form already established that she belongs at a very high level. She finished second in the Group 2 Lowther at York before subsequently finishing fourth in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes. She returned this season with another good performance when second in the Group 3 Nell Gwyn before tackling the Jersey at Royal Ascot and another Group 3 at York. Her latest fourth in the York Summer Stakes over six furlongs is considerably stronger form than most horses normally bring into a Listed fillies’ contest.
The move back to six furlongs is another positive. She has already shown Group-class ability at the trip and tomorrow she no longer...

Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 29% | Fair Odds: 5/2 | Grade: A
High Degree is a very different proposition. Rather than relying on a drop from Group company, this is a handicap-performance and equipment-change angle.
William Haggas’s four-year-old has been remarkably consistent in competitive company. He was second in an 11-runner Newbury Class 3 over this distance earlier in the season and followed that by finishing third of 12 at Sandown. At Musselburgh he met trouble before finishing fifth, and last time at Newmarket he again finished second in a Class 3 over tomorrow’s 1m2f trip.
That means his current rating around the low 90s is not based on one isolated effort — he has repeatedly shown that he can be competitive from this level. He is effective around a mile to ten furlongs, handles quick ground and has previously run well in much deeper handicaps, including at Ascot...