Model Rating: 88/100 | Win Probability: 27% | Fair Odds: 11/4 | Forecast: 3/1 | Grade: A
Stellarmasterpiece has an obvious piece of course-specific evidence in her favour: she won this exact race last year, getting the better of Star Start late. Racing Post’s race verdict specifically highlights the possibility of a repeat.
She returns from a mark of 63, carrying 10st 9lb, and again has Becky Smith aboard. Her current figures include a Topspeed 55 and RPR 63, while the C&D marker confirms that both track and trip are already proven.
The race shape should suit. Catterick’s staying races often reward horses who can travel comfortably and maintain position around the bends, and Stellarmasterpiece has already shown she handles the course. In an amateur-rider race, familiarity between horse and rider also carries slightly more weight than usual.
Star Start is a serious danger after...

Model Rating: 90/100 | Win Probability: 16% | Fair Odds: 21/4 | Forecast: 9/1 | Grade: A+ Value
Barmyblade is the horse where the model is furthest away from the early market.
His recent record of 8-2-1-0-1-4 contains two wins and a second, and importantly he is already a course-and-distance winner. He runs from a mark of 57, carrying 9st 5lb, with David Allan riding for Tim Easterby. His most recent RPR of 73 is joint-best among several of the stronger form horses in this race, and his Topspeed figure of 63 is also competitive.
The latest fourth does not worry me much. This is a low-grade sprint where small changes in pace and track position can alter the finishing order considerably, and he has already demonstrated this season that his current mark is workable.
The trainer angle is another positive. Racing Post’s current card flags Tim Easterby at 43% on its recent indicator, and...

Model Rating: 93/100 | Win Probability: 31% | Fair Odds: 9/4 | Available: 3/1 | Grade: A+
Style King has completely turned his form around since the combination of cheekpieces and more positive tactics was introduced. His recent figures now read 6-8-5-3-1-2, with the key evidence being a course-and-distance win followed by a narrow second at Lingfield. That matters because his improvement is no longer based on one isolated performance — he has backed it up.
He races here from OR 65 carrying 9st 5lb, and the return of Silvestre de Sousa is significant. De Sousa has been part of the recent tactical change and is well suited to a horse who seems best when allowed to use his natural pace rather than being buried in midfield. Racing TV/Timeform also make him their first choice, ahead of Maharajas Express and Dicko The Legend.
The pace setup should suit provided he can get forward without...