Model Rating: 94/100 | Win Probability: 38% | Fair Odds: 13/8 | Market: 2/1 | Grade: A+
Mighty Berkshire has taken a major step forward since undergoing a breathing operation and arrives here with form figures of 1-2 on his last two starts, both performances suggesting there is still more to come over staying trips.
He won a 19-runner handicap at Galway over 2m6f in July despite the race not unfolding perfectly for him, then backed that up with an even stronger run at Tramore when finishing second to Moonlight Paradise. On that occasion he conceded first run and still closed to within a length and a half, which makes the bare defeat easy to view positively.
He now runs from OR112, carries 11st12lb and has Kevin Healy claiming 7lb. That claim is particularly useful in a staying handicap where weight can become increasingly important late on.
The extra distance to just over three...

Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 38% | Fair Odds: 13/8 | Market: 2/1 | Grade: A+
Huwa Baree created a good impression when winning on debut at Lingfield and looks the type to improve significantly now stepping up from seven furlongs to a mile.
The Saxon Warrior colt knew enough to win first time out but still had to work for the result, showing a willing attitude when challenged. That experience should stand him in good stead against a field containing several horses with less racecourse evidence.
The distance increase is the main reason the model expects improvement.
His debut over seven furlongs suggested he was doing his best work once fully into stride, and his pedigree strongly supports the move to a mile. Kempton’s Polytrack should also be suitable after showing that an artificial surface holds no fears at Lingfield.
Callum Shepherd rides for Charlie Johnston, and the...

Model Rating: 90/100 | Win Probability: 15% | Fair Odds: 11/2 | Market: 8/1 | Grade: A+ EW Value
Chosen One is the more speculative selection, but the price gives us room.
Donnacha O’Brien’s three-year-old remains a maiden, yet she has already shown enough to suggest that her opening handicap mark of OR69 could be lenient. Her best performance came when finishing second in a maiden at Down Royal in July, and she was better than the bare result at Cork last time when encountering trouble in running.
That Cork run came in first-time cheekpieces, but they are removed tomorrow and a tongue-tie is applied for the first time.
That equipment change is interesting because it suggests connections are still trying to unlock more rather than simply accepting her current level.
She also steps into handicap company against largely exposed opposition. Sadhbh Tormey claims 2lb, effectively taking...