Model Rating: 90/100 | Win Probability: 18% | Fair Odds: 9/2 | Market: 6/1 | Grade: A Value
Principality's form figures make him look inconsistent, but digging into the individual runs paints a more attractive picture.
His first start this season in the Spring Mile at Doncaster was poor, but he immediately bounced back to win at Nottingham, rallying after temporarily looking outpaced. He then struggled in a stronger Class 2 at Epsom where his track position worked against him.
The key run is his latest at Newmarket.
After starting slowly, Principality finished strongly to win the Class 3 handicap and produced a career-best Racing Post Rating in the process. That is much more significant than simply arriving as a last-time-out winner because it suggests he is still progressing rather than having merely landed a race when everything fell right.
The handicapper has raised him just...

Model Rating: 92/100 | Win Probability: 33% | Fair Odds: 2/1 | Market: 11/4 | Grade: A+
JM Jungle is the strongest class-drop angle of the afternoon.
He is officially rated 108, the highest-rated horse among the major contenders, and his recent races have been considerably tougher than tomorrow's assignment. He was a Group 2 winner at Glorious Goodwood last summer and has spent much of this year running at Group and high Listed level.
His seasonal return in a Group 3 at Newmarket was respectable, and after tougher assignments at Haydock and Royal Ascot he took a clear step forward when third in the Listed City Walls Stakes at York. He travelled strongly there and actually led late before being run down.
Last time he tackled the Group 1 Nunthorpe, finishing seventh with blinkers applied for the first time. That sounds disappointing in isolation, but tomorrow represents a dramatic...

Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 22% | Fair Odds: 7/2 | Market: 5/1 | Grade: A+ Value
Catalina Delcarpio has a much better chance than her latest finishing position suggests.
Paddy Twomey's filly resumed her progress earlier this season by winning the Listed Amethyst Stakes at Leopardstown over a mile, confirming that she belongs at this level. She then took a substantial jump into the Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot and finished thirteenth behind Blue Bolt.
I'm not holding that Royal Ascot run against her too heavily.
That was a stronger race than tomorrow's and came over a stiff mile on quick ground. She now returns after 74 days off, drops into Group 3 company and comes back to seven furlongs.
Her OR102 also compares favourably with the field. Princess Child is rated 103 but has disappointed twice since finishing second at the Curragh in April, while several...

Model Rating: 94/100 | Win Probability: 25% | Fair Odds: 3/1 | Market: 4/1 | Grade: A+
Maxident has one of the strongest race-specific cases on Sunday because so many of the important variables point in the same direction.
He returned from 271 days off over this exact course and distance in June and produced a big run, finishing second in a Class 3 handicap on soft ground while pulling around eight lengths clear of the third. That established both his ability to handle Goodwood and his stamina for two miles.
He then ran at Kempton and again finished second, this time behind Senor Cortez. The bare margin makes it look one-sided, but tomorrow's handicap terms are completely different. Maxident was giving Senor Cortez 1lb at Kempton; he now gets a 7lb pull, while Senor Cortez has risen sharply in the weights following his recent winning sequence.
There is another important distinction...