Model Rating: 89/100 | Win Probability: 29% | Fair Odds: 5/2 | Market: 3/1 | Grade: A
Profit Surge gets the Irish vote, although this is one where the soft ground prevents me giving her an A+ rating.
She is a consistent five-year-old who has already demonstrated that this company suits her, and tomorrow she returns to claiming company having won on her only previous start in this grade. Sporting Life/Timeform also make her their first choice.
There is also a significant stable change.
Profit Surge makes her first start for Ian Donoghue, and these claiming races can be particularly suitable opportunities for horses moving between yards because the opposition is generally exposed and the weight structure is transparent.
She carries 9st2lb, giving her a useful pull with several of the more obvious rivals.
The race itself has nine runners and the market is remarkably compressed...

Model Rating: 93/100 | Win Probability: 18% | Fair Odds: 9/2 | Forecast: ~6/1 | Grade: A+ Value
Mister Sox is the strongest handicap/value angle.
He is an exposed six-year-old, but unlike many exposed sprinters there is a very specific reason to think tomorrow's mark understates his chance at this particular track.
Mister Sox won twice at Ripon during 2025 from OR77. He now races from just OR72, some 5lb lower than those winning marks.
His latest run suggests the handicapper may have gone far enough.
Returning over this C&D on 15 August, he finished fifth of 20, beaten only around 1½ lengths, despite racing on the less advantageous side of the field. He effectively performed best among the runners who raced in his group and competes tomorrow from the same OR72.
That performance is much more important than simply seeing another '5' in his form figures.
The rain is unlikely to...

Model Rating: 94/100 | Win Probability: 33% | Fair Odds: 2/1 | Market: 5/2 | Grade: A+
Variety Act is the horse I find most interesting on Tuesday because this looks like the point at which Sir Mark Prescott starts asking him the question he was bred and prepared to answer.
He has only three Flat runs to his name, finishing second on debut over seven furlongs at Chelmsford before third over a mile there and fourth over seven furlongs at Kempton. The bare form is therefore only 2-3-4, but those runs have largely been about gaining experience rather than exposing his ceiling.
The Kempton run is particularly interesting. Seven furlongs looked sharp enough, yet he still stayed on after initially being outpaced. Tomorrow he jumps straight up to 1m1½f for his handicap debut, and that is exactly the type of move associated with Prescott's progressive three-year-old handicappers.
His...

Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 27% | Fair Odds: 11/4 | Market: 7/2 | Grade: A Value
Dion Baker is a much stronger selection at 7/2 than the bare form figures initially make him appear.
The seven-year-old has been revitalised this summer, winning back-to-back races at Yarmouth and Brighton before continuing to run well from higher handicap marks. He won over this exact Brighton trip in July from OR59, having already won at Yarmouth, and has since shown he can remain competitive from OR73.
The key piece of form is his course-and-distance second to Serenity Dream on 6 August.
Dion Baker led that day and was beaten 1½ lengths. Serenity Dream subsequently carries a higher mark into tomorrow's rematch, while the revised terms give Dion Baker a better chance of turning the form around.
His latest ninth at Brighton looks poor until you analyse the race.
He dropped to around six...