Model Rating: 94/100 | Win Probability: 41% | Fair Odds: 7/5 | Available: 7/4 | Grade: A+
Atlantic Bridge has achieved considerably more than the bare 4-4 form figures suggest.
His debut came in a good Curragh maiden where he finished only around a length away in fourth. That form has substance: winner La Tache is now rated 90, while Southern Boulevard, who finished ahead of him, was introduced to handicaps from 83. Atlantic Bridge was therefore operating at a useful level immediately rather than picking up fourth in an ordinary maiden.
He then returned to the Curragh and again finished fourth in another strong maiden. That race was won by Group 3-entered Push The Boat, with Marco Polo second and subsequent Listed-placed New Bond Street third. Atlantic Bridge travelled into that six-furlong race but did not appear to finish the trip as strongly as those around him.
That makes...

Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 16% | Fair Odds: 21/4 | Available: 8/1 | Grade: A+ Value
Alto Sax is one of those horses whose recent finishing positions do not tell the whole story.
He has been better than the bare result on his last two starts, and his earlier near-miss at Leopardstown remains particularly relevant. Timeform’s current assessment also identifies him as still being on a workable mark based on that performance.
He runs from OR52, and that is the key attraction. His recent performance figures include a Topspeed 53 and RPR 56, suggesting there is very little evidence that the handicapper has him badly treated upward; if anything, he still has room to exploit this mark if getting a cleaner race. Peter Fahey’s current trainer figure on the Racing Post card is also positive.
The mile is established territory, and Navan should suit a horse who is generally better...

Model Rating: 92/100 | Win Probability: 36% | Fair Odds: 7/4 | Available: 2/1 | Grade: A+
Royal County Glory has an obvious opportunity to go one better after an excellent first run for his new connections.
He finished second over six furlongs at Lingfield last week, and importantly the handicapper has left his mark unchanged. He now returns to seven furlongs, the distance over which he recorded his sole Irish victory, so there is a very logical reason to expect another step forward rather than regression.
That latest run also established that he handles Lingfield’s Polytrack, removing one of the usual uncertainties surrounding horses moving between yards or surfaces.
The trip change should help tactically. Six furlongs here can be sharp, whereas over seven he should have a better opportunity to find a comfortable position before the pace lifts off the home turn.
Melodical is...

Model Rating: 88/100 | Win Probability: 13% | Fair Odds: 13/2 | Available: 11/1 | Grade: A Value
Hotel California is the speculative one in Thursday’s portfolio, but she is also priced accordingly.
David Menuisier’s filly has had only three starts, which makes her fundamentally different from many of the exposed Class 6 handicappers around her. She now goes handicapping from OR64, and the potential upside from such a lightly raced profile is exactly what the model looks for when we are getting a double-figure price.
The key question is whether her opening mark underestimates the ability she has yet to show rather than what she has already shown. The current Oddschecker analysis reaches the same conclusion, describing OR64 as potentially tempting given her unexposed profile.
The move into a ten-furlong handicap should also give her much more opportunity to settle into a race than the...