Currently gets the day's highest model rating. He won his Curragh maiden on debut before finishing ninth in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot, but there is a major contextual factor: he raced on the disadvantaged side. Today's step up to a mile could unlock considerably more improvement, and Aidan O'Brien has a strong historical record in this race.

This is more of a value-model selection than an obvious form pick. This is precisely where I want our system to differ from ordinary tipping. He has dropped below his last winning handicap mark, his previous run can be upgraded because the tactics didn't suit him, and his penultimate form has subsequently been boosted by horses coming out and winning.

This one is particularly interesting. He has impressed on both runs for Harriet Bethell, won well at Chester last time and now makes his handicap debut from 85. The key model question is whether 85 underestimates his remaining improvement; on what he's shown so far, I think it probably does.

Stands out on handicap position and current form. She comes here after consecutive seconds and gets further assistance from a 7lb claimer. The available analysis also identifies her as potentially well handicapped, which fits exactly the type of profile our model is designed to find.