Model Rating: 90/100Win Probability: 27%Fair Odds: 11/4Current: 3/1Grade: A / Value
Seven Nation Army has taken a significant step forward and is worth siding with despite conceding weight.
His early juvenile form was relatively ordinary, but his profile changed dramatically once moving into nursery company at Galway. He had already finished second immediately beforehand and then won impressively over seven furlongs at Galway 19 days ago, making it clear that the progression was genuine rather than the result of a single lucky run. His recent form now reads 8-8-6-2-1.
He is officially rated 92, the highest established rating among the main contenders, and represents Joseph O’Brien with Declan McDonogh aboard. The obvious drawback is weight: he carries 9st 12lb, giving weight to every other runner. But that is balanced by the fact we know significantly more about his actual ability...

Model Rating: 94/100Model Win Probability: 30%Fair Odds: 7/3Forecast: 3/1Grade: A+
Spaceman is the runner I like most tomorrow because he remains considerably less exposed than almost everything he meets. He has had just four starts, with form figures 2-3-1-3, and already owns winning Wolverhampton form. His maiden success here came over five furlongs, when he travelled strongly before taking over entering the final furlong and beating Argy Bhaji by a length and a quarter.
His latest third at Southwell was another step forward despite circumstances not playing entirely to his strengths. The important point for the model is that his RPR has already reached 94 from an official mark of only 76, while his Topspeed figure is 67. That gives him one of the strongest combinations of established performance and handicap upside in this field. He also receives the three-year-old weight allowance...

Model Rating: 92/100Win Probability: 34%Fair Odds: 15/8Current: 9/4Grade: A+
Almeiyda is the strongest established form selection on the Irish card.
Dermot Weld’s three-year-old has progressed steadily and now comes here after finishing second on consecutive starts. Most importantly, she was beaten only a length in a 14-runner Galway maiden three weeks ago despite being inconvenienced by a loose horse during the race. She travelled strongly enough to remain involved and was only beginning to weaken late.
There is even stronger evidence specifically relating to tomorrow’s conditions: before Galway she went very close over this course and distance. That eliminates the usual question around whether a horse will handle Roscommon’s particular configuration.
Her official rating of 82 also sets a useful benchmark. Rather than requiring a speculative leap forward, she already possesses a...