Model Rating: 92/100 | Win Probability: 41% | Fair Odds: 7/5 | Available: 13/8 | Grade: A+
Fastnet Crystal sets the strongest established standard in this seven-runner mares’ hurdle.
Joseph O’Brien’s five-year-old is rated 121, which puts her ahead of Easter Bonnet on 118, Daboya on 119 and Ardeen Joy on 114. She also remains lightly raced, with her hurdling profile suggesting that her current figure may not represent her limit.
Her Galway run last month is the key piece of evidence. She produced a strong effort in better company and now drops into a much more realistic assignment. The form is sufficiently strong that both At The Races and its expert analysis identify her as the standard-setter, particularly returning to a sound surface.
She carries 11st 3lb, the same as the principal older rivals, so there is no awkward penalty to overcome. J.J. Slevin rides for Joseph O’Brien, and...

Model Rating: 94/100 | Win Probability: 21% | Fair Odds: 15/4 | Available: 6/1 | Grade: A+ Value
Cloud Forest is the horse whose current mark looks most likely to underestimate him.
Saeed bin Suroor’s four-year-old has only had three career starts, producing form figures of 6-2-2, so there is still considerably more scope for improvement than with the majority of this 13-runner handicap. He now makes his handicap debut from OR83 and drops back to a mile after finishing second over 1m3f at Kempton last time.
That latest run is easy to view positively despite defeat. He was sent off odds-on, but the longer trip and different all-weather setup did not allow him to race as efficiently as he had previously. He wandered under pressure and looked much more like a horse lacking experience than one who had reached his ceiling. Returning to a straight mile on turf should allow him to travel...

Model Rating: 89/100 | Win Probability: 14% | Fair Odds: 6/1 | Available: 9/1 | Grade: A Value
Direct Approach is much more speculative than Fastnet Crystal, but the difference is that the market is offering a much bigger price.
He goes handicapping from OR100 after producing several respectable efforts in maiden hurdles through the summer. His penultimate run at Kilbeggan, where he finished third, was particularly encouraging because he travelled well enough to suggest that dropping into a 0-100 handicap could make life considerably easier.
This is exactly the sort of profile the model looks for in low-grade handicaps: a horse that has been running against horses capable of higher ratings and is now permitted to compete against rivals whose ability is already much more exposed.
Bellewstown's sharp configuration favours horses able to hold a decent tactical position rather than slow...

Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 19% | Fair Odds: 17/4 | Forecast: 11/2 | Grade: A Value
Ribenska is a particularly interesting all-weather filly because her form suggests she is returning to the same track configuration that has historically suited her best.
Her career record includes a Kempton second over seven furlongs, followed by a Lingfield win, and this season she has finished second and third in seven-furlong handicaps at Southwell. Her current record reads 1-7-7-2-9-3, but the important part is that her two better recent performances came back on an artificial surface.
Her latest Southwell third is worth upgrading slightly because that form has subsequently worked out well. She returns from a 69-day break, but Charlie Fellowes is clearly happy to bring her straight into a competitive Class 4 rather than finding a softer reappearance.
The most interesting change is...