Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 25% | Fair Odds: 3/1 | Target: 5/1+ | Grade: A+
Storm Point is one I want to forgive for his latest defeat.
The three-year-old has already won two handicaps this season, beginning with a successful handicap debut at Kempton from 69. That form has subsequently worked out well because runner-up Lion Of Mali has franked it twice. Storm Point then won again at Newbury from 73 before failing to reproduce that form at the same venue last time.
He remains lightly raced, with just seven career appearances, and therefore has a very different profile to the more exposed handicappers around him. He now runs from 78, so the handicapper is asking another question, but there is enough evidence in his earlier progression to believe that mark is not necessarily his ceiling.
Kieran Shoemark rides for Ed Walker. The step to this mile-and-a-quarter setup looks...

Model Rating: 90/100 | Win Probability: 34% | Fair Odds: 15/8 | Forecast: 5/2 | Grade: A
Mr Master Mac produced one of the strongest recent pieces of form in this seven-runner field when finishing second of 18 at Galway only 11 days ago. That represented another step forward and came in a large-field handicap, which gives the performance more depth than simply finishing second in a small novice.
His record now includes a Downpatrick maiden-hurdle success plus earlier Tramore experience, having finished third here over roughly this trip in April. He has therefore already shown that the tight, turning nature of Tramore isn't an issue.
The obvious question is tomorrow's drop from three miles to around 2m4½f. He travelled well enough at Galway to suggest it should not be fatal, but this will place slightly greater emphasis on tactical speed. That is why I have him at 34% rather than...

Model Rating: 92/100 | Win Probability: 22% | Fair Odds: 7/2 | Available: 15/2 | Grade: A+
Captive Beauty is the strongest combination of unexposed profile and price on tomorrow's cards. The three-year-old has had only four starts and showed considerably more on her handicap debut at Wolverhampton, finishing a close second despite having to come from off the pace and briefly meeting trouble late. Timeform's assessment is that she might have got to the winner without that interruption, and she is only 2lb higher tomorrow.
That matters because most of this field is considerably more exposed. Rather than asking Captive Beauty to return to an old level, we are backing the possibility that her Wolverhampton run represents the beginning of her progression in handicaps. She was also relatively weak in the market that day, so the improved performance was not simply a well-telegraphed stable...

The headline 33/1 is tempting because she is 9lb below her last winning mark and was beaten only a neck two runs ago. But the win probability is low enough that I don't want to include her just because of the huge price.