Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 18% | Fair Odds: 9/2 | Market: 5/1 | Grade: A Value
Archers Bay already possesses the most relevant piece of course evidence in this race.
He won a strong handicap over this exact Ascot course and distance four weeks ago, travelling well before beating King Of Berkshire by 3½ lengths. The step up to this trip clearly unlocked another level, and his Topspeed figure of 93 alongside an RPR of 107 confirms that the performance was much more than a visually easy success.
The handicapper has reacted with a 7lb rise to OR99, which is the obvious issue.
He now carries 9st9lb at the top of the weights, so another career-best is required. But this is still a three-year-old who has won three races and only really looked at home once tackling this distance.
Pat Dobbs keeps the ride for Marco Botti, whose recent runners have been performing well, and...

Model Rating: 94/100 | Win Probability: 24% | Fair Odds: 3/1 | Market: 9/2 | Grade: A+
Paborus is the standout price/value combination on Saturday.
He remains very lightly raced for a five-year-old and returned from almost a full year off in June to win the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle over six furlongs, beating Marvelman by a length and a half with Symbol Of Honour further behind. What makes that run particularly strong is that Ed Bethell openly felt Paborus would need the race, so there was every reason to expect him to improve from it.
He subsequently ran over seven furlongs in the City Of York Stakes and was still right in contention entering the final furlong before the extra distance exposed him late. Marvelman finished ahead of him there, but tomorrow Paborus drops back to his optimum six furlongs, which gives him every chance of reversing that form. Sporting...

Model Rating: 90/100 | Win Probability: 24% | Fair Odds: 3/1 | Forecast: ~7/2 | Grade: A Value
Namiid is the Irish horse I want on the shortlist, although this one is price-sensitive because the full fixed-odds market is not yet as developed as the British races tonight.
Johnny Murtagh’s three-year-old already has one major advantage over several rivals: he is a course-and-distance winner, having won over this five furlongs at Navan in May. His current handicap mark is OR82, and subsequent efforts have generally suggested that mark remains workable rather than having stopped his progress.
The return to Navan therefore makes plenty of sense.
The latest going is Good, good to yielding in places, so there are no obvious surface concerns.
This is competitive. Amiata has won two of her recent starts and is progressive, Moltophino shaped well last time, while Erosandpsyche has been...