Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 27% | Fair Odds: 11/4 | Market: 10/3 | Grade: A+ Value
Zermatt Star is one of the most interesting horses on Wednesday because her dramatic improvement last time has a very plausible explanation.
She had shown relatively little beforehand but was fitted with cheekpieces for the first time at Ripon eight days ago and suddenly produced a career-best performance, winning a Class 5 mile handicap by three lengths at 40/1. She travelled strongly from midfield, moved through the race around two furlongs out and went clear late.
Crucially, connections subsequently reported that the improvement appeared to come from the first-time cheekpieces and softer ground.
Both factors remain relevant tomorrow.
The cheekpieces stay on and Carlisle is currently Good to Soft, soft in places, so she should again get the slower surface that brought out such...

Model Rating: 90/100 | Win Probability: 14% | Fair Odds: 6/1 | Forecast: 10/1 | Grade: A+ EW Value
The Bureau Club is more speculative than the other three, but this is exactly the type of runner the model wants at a double-figure price.
Her recent form has improved since a tongue-tie was introduced, including a narrow defeat and a subsequent fourth at Chepstow when she was not ideally positioned. Tomorrow she drops in grade and has been eased 5lb by the handicapper.
The return to Kempton is particularly interesting.
Earlier in the year she finished fourth in an eleven-runner mile maiden here after being slowly away and having plenty to do, but she stayed on strongly in the closing stages and was beaten less than two lengths. That was over this exact Standard-to-Slow Polytrack mile.
So unlike several rivals, there is already evidence that the surface and track suit.
The draw in...

Model Rating: 94/100 | Win Probability: 31% | Fair Odds: 9/4 | Available: around 3/1 | Grade: A+
Art Lover gets the highest model rating because his two runs this season suggest he is ready to win again now returned to a more suitable grade.
William Haggas’s three-year-old returned from 276 days off at Chester in July and ran an excellent race, finishing second over six furlongs and beaten only a length. He then stepped into an 18-runner Class 3 handicap at Thirsk, where he finished fourth, beaten just 1¾ lengths despite meeting much deeper opposition.
That Thirsk effort is particularly persuasive because he now drops back into Class 4 company while remaining on OR85. He does not have to improve dramatically to win this; reproducing his Chester/Thirsk level already puts him right among the leading contenders.
Tom Marquand takes over and the Haggas yard is operating at a strong...