Model Rating: 92/100 | Win Probability: 26% | Fair Odds: 11/4 | Target: 7/2+ | Grade: A+ Value

Crooked Path has found a new level since joining James Owen and his recent Epsom run gives him an obvious chance of going one better over the same course and distance.

He won at Kempton over almost a mile and a half in August, overcoming a slow start before making sustained headway and getting up late. He then came here for the Amateurs’ Derby over this exact C&D and produced another strong effort, finishing second of 14.

He had no answer to an easy winner that day, but he stayed on strongly and finished clear enough of most of the field to confirm that his Kempton improvement was genuine.

Most importantly, he can race from the same OR72.

That means there is no handicap penalty for demonstrating that he handles one of Britain’s most idiosyncratic tracks — an important advantage at Epsom, where balance around Tattenham Corner and the camber regularly catch horses out.

He is also proven on good-to-soft ground, having produced that runner-up effort here under matching conditions.

Mason Paetel takes over in this apprentice event. Apprentice races add rider variance, which is one reason I have kept the win probability to 26%, but Crooked Path at least comes here with fewer course, stamina and ground questions than most.

Charmaine is the obvious threat after winning at Chester and remains fairly treated. Naval Command is less exposed and could also progress. Sporting Life nevertheless makes Crooked Path its preferred selection, specifically highlighting his recent course second and unchanged handicap mark.