Model Rating: 94/100 | Win Probability: 38% | Fair Odds: 13/8 | Market: 2/1 | Grade: A+ Value

Silver Lake is one of Friday’s strongest progressive-handicap profiles.

William Haggas’s three-year-old arrives seeking a four-timer, with recent form figures of 6-3-1-1-1, and remains comparatively lightly raced. She is now rated OR92, but there is nothing in her latest performances to suggest the handicapper has definitely caught up with her yet.

The weight-for-age structure is a significant positive.

She carries 9st5lb, whereas older mare Salamanca City carries 9st12lb, and the three-year-old allowance gives Silver Lake an important advantage against more exposed opposition.

James Doyle retains the ride for William Haggas, a combination that needs no introduction in progressive middle-distance handicaps.

The move to 1m4f looks suitable rather than problematic. Silver Lake has been finishing her recent races strongly and her profile suggests stamina is one of her developing assets.

The principal concern is ground. Doncaster is currently good to soft, and while that should be manageable, anything substantially softer would introduce an extra question compared with some rivals possessing deeper soft-ground evidence.

Salamanca City is the obvious danger. She has form figures of 1-2-1-1-2 from her last five starts, is rated OR91 and arrives in excellent order. Ruby Wedding and Nochebuena are also respected.

However, Silver Lake has more scope to improve than those older mares.

The current 2/1 implies a 33% chance; the model has her closer to 38%, making her fair nearer 13/8.