Model Rating: 94/100 | Win Probability: 31% | Fair Odds: 9/4 | Available: around 3/1 | Grade: A+

Art Lover gets the highest model rating because his two runs this season suggest he is ready to win again now returned to a more suitable grade.

William Haggas’s three-year-old returned from 276 days off at Chester in July and ran an excellent race, finishing second over six furlongs and beaten only a length. He then stepped into an 18-runner Class 3 handicap at Thirsk, where he finished fourth, beaten just 1¾ lengths despite meeting much deeper opposition.

That Thirsk effort is particularly persuasive because he now drops back into Class 4 company while remaining on OR85. He does not have to improve dramatically to win this; reproducing his Chester/Thirsk level already puts him right among the leading contenders.

Tom Marquand takes over and the Haggas yard is operating at a strong recent strike rate. Current form data has the stable at roughly 26% over the last fortnight, another positive for a lightly raced horse who may still be progressing.

Kempton’s six furlongs should not create a stamina question. He is a six-furlong winner and has repeatedly shown enough tactical pace over the trip. Stall four is also a perfectly workable position in a seven-runner field.

Bintaryana is the main danger. She is a C&D winner, arrives in excellent form, is rated 83 and has recorded stronger recent Topspeed figures than Art Lover. Oisin Murphy rides and she understandably heads the market around 2/1.

However, her recent success is already reflected in the price, whereas Art Lover comes here dropping in grade after performing well in a much stronger race.