Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 45% | Fair Odds: 6/5 | Market: 6/4 | Grade: A

Moab is more of a strong-probability bet than a major value selection.

He remains a maiden over hurdles, but that needs context. His hurdling form includes 2-2-4-3 in recent completed starts, and his third in a 24-runner Punchestown handicap hurdle in April represents comfortably stronger evidence than most of tomorrow’s opponents possess.

Fitness is another advantage.

Moab returned from four months away with a respectable Flat run only 16 days ago, meaning he should arrive significantly sharper than some rivals returning from longer absences. Sporting Life/Timeform also identify that recent Flat outing as a useful preparation and make him their selection.

His OR110 establishes a useful benchmark.

Downtown Nashville is interesting on hurdling debut after making the frame in Irish points and finishing placed in bumpers at Uttoxeter and Perth. Sean Bowen rides and he could improve considerably for the longer 2m3f trip. Novelista also has enough ability to be dangerous after finishing second over hurdles last season.

Coastal Command returns after 273 days and therefore carries a fitness question, while Anzac Day needs to improve substantially from his Worcester hurdling debut.

Moab is the one horse who does not require a large projection.

The concern is obvious: he has had chances over hurdles already, whereas Downtown Nashville in particular could improve past the established form.

That keeps him behind High Fibre, America Queen and Gata Ban in the overall value rankings.