Model Rating: 92/100 | Win Probability: 40% | Fair Odds: 6/4 | Market: 15/8 | Grade: A+ Value

Gata Ban returns to a course and distance at which she produced one of her best performances this summer.

She won at Worcester over 2m7f in June by 8½ lengths from an 11-runner field off OR82, before following up just four days later over tomorrow’s exact Fontwell C&D. She had to battle much harder on that occasion but still won, beating Special John with tomorrow’s rival Edgewell six lengths further behind.

Her handicap mark has understandably risen, and she now races from around OR91, so the handicapper has taken account of those wins.

However, her latest Worcester fourth came in stronger company and was not a bad run. She finished around nine lengths behind Axel Bleue over 2m7f and now returns to the course where her jumping and stamina have already been proven.

Fontwell is currently Good, matching the type of surface on which she has produced her summer improvement.

The race itself contains several runners with more substantial questions. Edgewell has not matched his summer winning form recently, Of Corse I Can is another C&D winner but needs to revive, while Unspeakable has undergone a breathing operation and is now 3lb below his last winning mark.

That breathing-operation angle makes Unspeakable the danger because significant improvement is possible if the procedure has had the desired effect.

Gata Ban, though, requires far less guesswork.

At 15/8, the market implies around 35%. I have her closer to 40%, making her a genuine if relatively modest value play.