Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 38% | Fair Odds: 13/8 | Market: 2/1 | Grade: A+

Huwa Baree created a good impression when winning on debut at Lingfield and looks the type to improve significantly now stepping up from seven furlongs to a mile.

The Saxon Warrior colt knew enough to win first time out but still had to work for the result, showing a willing attitude when challenged. That experience should stand him in good stead against a field containing several horses with less racecourse evidence.

The distance increase is the main reason the model expects improvement.

His debut over seven furlongs suggested he was doing his best work once fully into stride, and his pedigree strongly supports the move to a mile. Kempton’s Polytrack should also be suitable after showing that an artificial surface holds no fears at Lingfield.

Callum Shepherd rides for Charlie Johnston, and the Johnston operation is rarely afraid to run promising juveniles under a penalty when they believe they can progress again.

The penalty is the main negative. Huwa Baree gives weight away to less exposed rivals, and a 12-runner novice always carries the risk of one of the newcomers improving dramatically.

But unlike those horses, we already know Huwa Baree can travel, quicken and fight through pressure.

Sporting Life currently rates him the one to beat and has him around 2/1.