Model Rating: 93/100 | Win Probability: 17% | Fair Odds: 5/1 | Market: 15/2 | Grade: A+ Value

Recobella is the strongest price-based selection of the day.

Her recent figures of 5-2-5-1-2-1 show a mare thriving since being asked to race over middle distances. She won at Ayr before another career-best performance at Thirsk last month, getting up over a mile and a half despite racing a little freely.

She is only 4lb higher tomorrow, racing from OR60.

What makes that particularly interesting is her French form. Current race analysis considers her still potentially well treated on what she achieved before coming to Britain, meaning the recent victories haven’t necessarily exhausted her handicap improvement.

The deteriorating Haydock ground is another positive rather than a concern. Recobella has already demonstrated that she handles soft ground, whereas some of the horses around her in the betting have significantly stronger records on faster surfaces.

Flightofthephoenix is the obvious danger. She has won her last two at Kempton and Ffos Las and remains unexposed at the distance, although she carries a penalty tomorrow. Star Start is extremely consistent and arrives after finishing second at Ripon only three days ago. I’d Go Maniac also won last time but has more to prove on soft ground.

There is an additional variable because this is an amateur riders’ race, so I don’t want to pretend Recobella has the same win certainty as our shorter-priced bets.

But that’s why 15/2 is attractive.

At The Races’ expert analysis also puts Recobella at the top of its assessment, specifically highlighting her improving middle-distance profile and suitability to softer ground.