Model Rating: 90/100 | Win Probability: 20% | Fair Odds: 4/1 | Market: 5/1 | Grade: A Value

Walking On Stars interests me because the market has become extremely lopsided towards Castlemont.

Sir Mark Prescott’s filly has steadily progressed through three starts, producing figures of 5-4-2, and her latest run was comfortably her best. She finished only three-quarters of a length second at Lingfield over 1m2f, staying on in a manner that strongly suggested a longer trip would help.

Tomorrow she gets exactly that.

She steps up to 1m4f, which should play heavily to her pedigree as a daughter of Sea The Stars, and it is also the sort of distance progression at which Prescott-trained middle-distance horses frequently begin to improve.

Luke Morris retains the ride.

She has already shown she handles an artificial surface, so Southwell’s Tapeta shouldn’t present a new variable. There is also no meaningful draw disadvantage over this distance.

Castlemont is the obvious problem. He was impressive on his belated Windsor debut and has been backed to around 1/2, so the market is treating this almost as a one-horse race.

I don’t.

Castlemont may absolutely be the most likely winner, but he has raced only once. Walking On Stars possesses considerably more experience, is improving and now tackles a distance likely to suit her better.

At 5/1, the gap between the pair looks wider in the market than in my model.