Model Rating: 94/100 | Win Probability: 33% | Fair Odds: 2/1 | Market: 5/2 | Grade: A+

Variety Act is the horse I find most interesting on Tuesday because this looks like the point at which Sir Mark Prescott starts asking him the question he was bred and prepared to answer.

He has only three Flat runs to his name, finishing second on debut over seven furlongs at Chelmsford before third over a mile there and fourth over seven furlongs at Kempton. The bare form is therefore only 2-3-4, but those runs have largely been about gaining experience rather than exposing his ceiling.

The Kempton run is particularly interesting. Seven furlongs looked sharp enough, yet he still stayed on after initially being outpaced. Tomorrow he jumps straight up to 1m1½f for his handicap debut, and that is exactly the type of move associated with Prescott’s progressive three-year-old handicappers.

His opening mark of OR71 looks workable. The strongest RPR he has recorded so far is 77, but there are enough reasons to expect significant improvement now stamina comes more into play.

The stable angle is unusually strong as well. Prescott has been operating at roughly 29% over the latest 21-day sample, while his historical Wolverhampton strike rate is around 18%. More recently his 14-day numbers were even stronger at five winners from 12 runners. Luke Morris, who knows the yard’s horses extremely well, takes the ride.

The revised field is also much more manageable than some early cards suggested, with six runners shown by the latest specialist card. Booziebrunch is solid off OR75 and Silken Bay brings an RPR in the mid-80s, so this is not a penalty kick.

The unknown is the 195-day absence, but Prescott is hardly a trainer whose handicappers need to be having their prep run in public.

At 5/2, I’m willing to bet that Variety Act is considerably better than OR71 now stepped up in distance.