Model Rating: 90/100 | Win Probability: 18% | Fair Odds: 9/2 | Market: 6/1 | Grade: A Value

Principality’s form figures make him look inconsistent, but digging into the individual runs paints a more attractive picture.

His first start this season in the Spring Mile at Doncaster was poor, but he immediately bounced back to win at Nottingham, rallying after temporarily looking outpaced. He then struggled in a stronger Class 2 at Epsom where his track position worked against him.

The key run is his latest at Newmarket.

After starting slowly, Principality finished strongly to win the Class 3 handicap and produced a career-best Racing Post Rating in the process. That is much more significant than simply arriving as a last-time-out winner because it suggests he is still progressing rather than having merely landed a race when everything fell right.

The handicapper has raised him just 2lb, which looks perfectly manageable.

Course evidence is another major positive. Principality has already won twice from five starts at Goodwood, so unlike many horses around this unusual track there is no concern over whether he handles the downhill sections and cambers.

He is drawn three, which gives his rider options rather than forcing an aggressive early move from the outside.

There are plenty of dangers. Inspired is arriving in excellent form after winning at Hamilton and finishing second at Haydock, while Silca Bay is particularly interesting around 11/1 after encountering trouble at Brighton and already having a C&D win to his name. Sporting Life/Timeform actually favour Silca Bay.

That competitive nature keeps Principality below A+ level, but 6/1 is big enough against a model price around 9/2.