Model Rating: 92/100 | Win Probability: 33% | Fair Odds: 2/1 | Market: 11/4 | Grade: A+

JM Jungle is the strongest class-drop angle of the afternoon.

He is officially rated 108, the highest-rated horse among the major contenders, and his recent races have been considerably tougher than tomorrow’s assignment. He was a Group 2 winner at Glorious Goodwood last summer and has spent much of this year running at Group and high Listed level.

His seasonal return in a Group 3 at Newmarket was respectable, and after tougher assignments at Haydock and Royal Ascot he took a clear step forward when third in the Listed City Walls Stakes at York. He travelled strongly there and actually led late before being run down.

Last time he tackled the Group 1 Nunthorpe, finishing seventh with blinkers applied for the first time. That sounds disappointing in isolation, but tomorrow represents a dramatic reduction in difficulty.

The blinkers remain useful evidence because he did not disgrace himself whatsoever at York despite facing elite five-furlong sprinters. Dropping back to Listed level just nine days later should allow him to travel considerably more comfortably against slower opposition.

Jason Hart retains the ride for John and Sean Quinn.

Shagraan is the obvious danger. He won this race last year and now receives first-time cheekpieces, but stall 11 is awkward around Beverley’s sharp five furlongs and his recent form of 3-0-0-7 contains more questions than JM Jungle’s.

Washington Heights is another respected runner around 4/1 after returning to something like his best at Deauville, but again JM Jungle’s peak form is stronger.

At 11/4, I’m happy to back the class angle.