Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 22% | Fair Odds: 7/2 | Market: 5/1 | Grade: A+ Value

Catalina Delcarpio has a much better chance than her latest finishing position suggests.

Paddy Twomey’s filly resumed her progress earlier this season by winning the Listed Amethyst Stakes at Leopardstown over a mile, confirming that she belongs at this level. She then took a substantial jump into the Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot and finished thirteenth behind Blue Bolt.

I’m not holding that Royal Ascot run against her too heavily.

That was a stronger race than tomorrow’s and came over a stiff mile on quick ground. She now returns after 74 days off, drops into Group 3 company and comes back to seven furlongs.

Her OR102 also compares favourably with the field. Princess Child is rated 103 but has disappointed twice since finishing second at the Curragh in April, while several others need improvement merely to reach Catalina Delcarpio’s proven level.

Billy Lee rides for Paddy Twomey, a combination that warrants respect with this type of filly, and the reduction to seven furlongs should allow her to travel more comfortably rather than asking her to sustain a prolonged run over a mile.

It is not a weak Group 3. Magny Cours, Pivotal Attack, Suzie Songs and Dancing Saxon all have plausible cases, and the early forecast had the market reasonably open with several between roughly 5/1 and 7/1.

That’s actually part of the appeal: 5/1 Catalina Delcarpio isn’t priced like a horse who already owns Listed-winning form and an OR above 100.

The concern is whether the Ascot disappointment represented something more than class/trip, but the break since gives her every opportunity to reset.