Model Rating: 94/100 | Win Probability: 25% | Fair Odds: 3/1 | Market: 4/1 | Grade: A+

Maxident has one of the strongest race-specific cases on Sunday because so many of the important variables point in the same direction.

He returned from 271 days off over this exact course and distance in June and produced a big run, finishing second in a Class 3 handicap on soft ground while pulling around eight lengths clear of the third. That established both his ability to handle Goodwood and his stamina for two miles.

He then ran at Kempton and again finished second, this time behind Senor Cortez. The bare margin makes it look one-sided, but tomorrow’s handicap terms are completely different. Maxident was giving Senor Cortez 1lb at Kempton; he now gets a 7lb pull, while Senor Cortez has risen sharply in the weights following his recent winning sequence.

There is another important distinction between the pair. Senor Cortez has done his recent winning on the all-weather and is now 13lb higher than when well beaten on turf at Musselburgh earlier in the year. Maxident, by contrast, has produced both his turf victories on testing ground and has already demonstrated that Goodwood suits him.

His likely forward-going style is also a positive. Two-mile Goodwood handicaps can become tactical and awkward for horses held up around the bends, whereas Maxident should be able to establish his position rather than depend on gaps appearing.

The biggest variable is the ground. Goodwood’s forecast has contained the possibility of showers, and any easing would strengthen his chance considerably given that his two turf wins came under softer conditions.

Squire Danagher is the danger after winning a useful Sandown race whose second and third both subsequently won, but he is now 5lb higher and racing from a career-high mark.

At 4/1, Maxident has enough margin between the market probability of 20% and my estimate of approximately 25%.