Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 11% | Fair Odds: 8/1 | Market: ~11/1 | Grade: A+ Value

Darkness is exactly the sort of exposed handicapper the market can underestimate because his recent form figures look unattractive.

This race, however, has been his target before — and he won this exact contest twelve months ago from OR88, coming from the rear to score decisively over the same seven-furlong Goodwood course on good-to-firm ground.

He returns tomorrow from OR87, therefore racing from 1lb lower than last year’s winning mark.

His most recent run is also considerably better than the bare sixth suggests. Darkness finished sixth of 18 in the Golden Mile here during Glorious Goodwood, beaten only 3½ lengths after being slowly away and doing his best work late. Dropping back from a mile to seven furlongs now looks ideal.

He also gets back onto the same fast surface over which he won this race last year.

Forty Years On is the obvious progressive horse and deserves favouritism after four wins from her last five starts. But at roughly 9/4 in a 20-runner Class 2 handicap, nearly everything has to go right. Darkness is around five times the price despite possessing proven course, distance, class and handicap-mark evidence.

His running style brings obvious traffic risk, so this is an each-way/value selection rather than a maximum win bet.