Model Rating: 93/100 | Win Probability: 36% | Fair Odds: 7/4 | Market: ~9/4 | Grade: A+

The withdrawal of Sergei Diaghilev changes this race significantly.

Rock Montreal was already one of the most interesting runners before that non-runner, and now has one fewer high-class rival to deal with. The 1,000,000-guinea Blue Point colt created a strong impression on debut at Yarmouth earlier this month, winning by nearly three lengths despite clearly still learning his job.

The important point was not merely the winning margin. He travelled comfortably, responded when asked and pulled clear without being subjected to maximum pressure. Timeform marked him as a Horse In Focus with a large-P improvement symbol, indicating that considerably better is expected.

Roger Varian’s horses are in good form, while William Buick takes the ride.

Sonic Angel is dangerous after winning both starts, including by six lengths at Kempton, and he may make the running. That could actually help Rock Montreal, because a strong pace would allow him to settle before attacking Sandown’s stiff finish.

Breacher is another unbeaten runner who deserves respect.

The obvious concern is that Rock Montreal makes a huge jump from novice company straight into a Group 3 after only one run. His price therefore needs to compensate for that uncertainty.

At around 9/4 rather than the earlier 5/4 quotes, it does.