Model Rating: 94/100 | Win Probability: 36% | Fair Odds: 7/4 | Available/forecast: ~5/2 | Grade: A+

Rocky’s Diamond is the strongest horse in Friday’s portfolio on established ability. His official rating of 147 gives him the clear numerical standard in this field, and that rating is backed up by genuinely high-class staying hurdle form rather than flattering handicap performances. He finished fourth in last season’s Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham and returned to winning ways over 3m1f at Kilbeggan earlier this month.

His subsequent switch to fences at Tramore was respectable without being spectacular, but reverting to hurdles and returning to a full three miles looks much more suitable. Connections also reach for first-time cheekpieces, while Michael Kenneally claims 5lb, improving an already attractive weights-and-ratings position.

There is plenty of depth behind him. Clay Pigeons is an exciting Willie Mullins-trained improver after winning his maiden hurdle at Roscommon, while Samui has useful ability and Reverend Hubert is rated 140. Clay Pigeons in particular could eventually rate much higher than his current RPR of 115, but this requires an immediate jump from maiden company into a race containing seasoned graded performers.

Good-to-firm ground is the main question for Rocky’s Diamond rather than stamina or class. However, his overall profile gives him more room for error than most of these, and the cheekpieces could sharpen him sufficiently around Down Royal.