Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 16% | Fair Odds: 21/4 | Available: 8/1 | Grade: A+ Value

Alto Sax is one of those horses whose recent finishing positions do not tell the whole story.

He has been better than the bare result on his last two starts, and his earlier near-miss at Leopardstown remains particularly relevant. Timeform’s current assessment also identifies him as still being on a workable mark based on that performance.

He runs from OR52, and that is the key attraction. His recent performance figures include a Topspeed 53 and RPR 56, suggesting there is very little evidence that the handicapper has him badly treated upward; if anything, he still has room to exploit this mark if getting a cleaner race. Peter Fahey’s current trainer figure on the Racing Post card is also positive.

The mile is established territory, and Navan should suit a horse who is generally better when allowed to find rhythm before delivering his effort. This is a big enough field for traffic to matter, but the likely even pace should be preferable to a tactical affair.

Minaun View, Tofino and Go Out are all shorter in the market, while Good Man Jack is genuinely interesting after meeting trouble at Galway. But there is very little between several of these on ratings, which makes 8/1 Alto Sax much more attractive than taking 4/1–5/1 about the obvious ones.