Model Rating: 88/100 | Win Probability: 13% | Fair Odds: 13/2 | Available: 11/1 | Grade: A Value

Hotel California is the speculative one in Thursday’s portfolio, but she is also priced accordingly.

David Menuisier’s filly has had only three starts, which makes her fundamentally different from many of the exposed Class 6 handicappers around her. She now goes handicapping from OR64, and the potential upside from such a lightly raced profile is exactly what the model looks for when we are getting a double-figure price.

The key question is whether her opening mark underestimates the ability she has yet to show rather than what she has already shown. The current Oddschecker analysis reaches the same conclusion, describing OR64 as potentially tempting given her unexposed profile.

The move into a ten-furlong handicap should also give her much more opportunity to settle into a race than the developmental races she has contested so far.

This is certainly not an easy race. Grand Pier has obvious course-and-distance credentials after finishing second here in June, Takeitorleaveit remains extremely consistent and Symphony’s Song is holding her form. Grand Pier is therefore a perfectly logical favourite around 9/4.

But that is exactly why Hotel California appeals at 11/1: we are backing potential rather than exposed reliability.