Model Rating: 92/100 | Win Probability: 41% | Fair Odds: 7/5 | Available: 13/8 | Grade: A+

Fastnet Crystal sets the strongest established standard in this seven-runner mares’ hurdle.

Joseph O’Brien’s five-year-old is rated 121, which puts her ahead of Easter Bonnet on 118, Daboya on 119 and Ardeen Joy on 114. She also remains lightly raced, with her hurdling profile suggesting that her current figure may not represent her limit.

Her Galway run last month is the key piece of evidence. She produced a strong effort in better company and now drops into a much more realistic assignment. The form is sufficiently strong that both At The Races and its expert analysis identify her as the standard-setter, particularly returning to a sound surface.

She carries 11st 3lb, the same as the principal older rivals, so there is no awkward penalty to overcome. J.J. Slevin rides for Joseph O’Brien, and the race setup should allow her to settle within touching distance of the pace before using her stamina late.

Easter Bonnet is the obvious threat after improving sharply to win at Cork and represents Willie Mullins. Daboya is also respected following useful Flat form and previous hurdle success. But both need to improve slightly to match Fastnet Crystal’s established level.

The concern is simply price. 13/8 isn’t enormous, but I still have her closer to 7/5.