Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 19% | Fair Odds: 17/4 | Forecast: 11/2 | Grade: A Value

Ribenska is a particularly interesting all-weather filly because her form suggests she is returning to the same track configuration that has historically suited her best.

Her career record includes a Kempton second over seven furlongs, followed by a Lingfield win, and this season she has finished second and third in seven-furlong handicaps at Southwell. Her current record reads 1-7-7-2-9-3, but the important part is that her two better recent performances came back on an artificial surface.

Her latest Southwell third is worth upgrading slightly because that form has subsequently worked out well. She returns from a 69-day break, but Charlie Fellowes is clearly happy to bring her straight into a competitive Class 4 rather than finding a softer reappearance.

The most interesting change is first-time cheekpieces. Ribenska can race a little lazily when the tempo lifts, so anything that helps her travel and maintain position entering Kempton’s home turn could be valuable.

Kempton is Standard to Slow, which should not bother a filly with extensive synthetic experience. Seven furlongs is established as her trip, and she has already performed well at this course.

Merry is forecast favourite around 3/1, with Afraj approximately 5/1. Shushu and Bridget’s View are also credible rivals. But Ribenska at around 11/2 gives us enough compensation in an open race.