Model Rating: 92/100 | Win Probability: 34% | Fair Odds: 15/8 | Current: 9/4 | Grade: A+

Von Krolock comes here in the strongest current form of this field and looks capable of following up his recent Lingfield win despite carrying a penalty. His recent sequence of 2-3-1-6-2-1 includes two wins earlier in the season and a comfortable victory only six days ago, when he showed the benefit of having a recent run behind him. He is officially rated 56, carries 9st 9lb and Christian Howarth takes off another 3lb.

The obvious question is turf. His recent wins have come on the all-weather and he is still searching for a first turf success, but that does not mean he is ineffective on grass — he previously went close on turf in Ireland. Brighton’s six-furlong configuration should also play to his ability to travel prominently rather than requiring a huge finishing burst.

The pace should be solid enough with several forward-going types, but Von Krolock has enough tactical speed to hold a useful position. The current draw in six is workable and, importantly, this is not a strong race for the grade.

Nordic Glory is the danger after winning at Bath, while Rye could run better than her latest sixth suggests. Blue Anthem is interesting with a visor reapplied and Billy Loughnane booked, but his recent form is considerably weaker. Von Krolock has the clearest combination of current form, manageable mark and race fitness.