Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 25% | Fair Odds: 3/1 | Current: 4/1 | Grade: A+ Value
Bunting is the most interesting price on Monday’s card.
The Willie Mullins-trained six-year-old has not won since his hurdling debut, but his latest Galway run showed considerably more than the finishing position suggests. He finished sixth of 20 in a competitive handicap hurdle over 2m6f on good-to-soft ground and shaped as though he was returning towards his better form. Connections now send him over fences.
This is obviously a different test. He drops sharply in trip to 2m1f, while Monday will be his first public start over fences. But Mullins does not need to run him here simply for experience, and this relatively small six-runner chase represents a much more controlled introduction than a large-field handicap.
Danny Mullins rides and Bunting receives 5lb from Addragoole and Bowensonfire. At his best over hurdles he possessed enough speed for two miles, so the trip does not concern me nearly as much as it might with a pure staying type.
Jazzy Matty sets a strong standard and is rated 145 over fences, but he ran only on Saturday and is currently just 15/8. Bowensonfire also raced on Saturday. Addragoole should improve for his Galway comeback but is only 5/2. That creates an interesting setup for the fresher Bunting at 4/1.
The chasing debut prevents him being the outright best bet, but the price versus potential upside is excellent.