Wave Rider is the most interesting handicap profile on the card.

He finished last season with a wide-margin win over a mile and a half at Haydock and showed again at York in May that he can operate effectively in a strong handicap, finishing third over this trip. His latest Newmarket effort came on firm ground and was below his best, but that run is easy enough to forgive given the surface and the fact that he now returns to a softer track.

He runs from OR99 carrying 9st 11lb, and Oisin Murphy takes the ride for George Scott. That is a notable booking in a race where positioning and judgement will be important.

The softer conditions are a major part of the angle. He has already shown that a mile and a half is right in his range, and if the ground becomes testing enough to turn this into a stamina contest, that should play more to his strengths than to some of the quicker-ground specialists around him.

French Duke is a danger at around 8/1, particularly with cheekpieces fitted after a breathing operation, while Master Builder and Master Vintner have obvious claims. But Wave Rider offers the stronger blend of proven York form, trip suitability and current price.

Model: 91/100
Win Probability: 18%
Fair: 9/2
Current: 11/2