Model Rating: 90/100
Win Probability: 27%
Fair Odds: 11/4
Current: 3/1
Grade: A / Value

Seven Nation Army has taken a significant step forward and is worth siding with despite conceding weight.

His early juvenile form was relatively ordinary, but his profile changed dramatically once moving into nursery company at Galway. He had already finished second immediately beforehand and then won impressively over seven furlongs at Galway 19 days ago, making it clear that the progression was genuine rather than the result of a single lucky run. His recent form now reads 8-8-6-2-1.

He is officially rated 92, the highest established rating among the main contenders, and represents Joseph O’Brien with Declan McDonogh aboard. The obvious drawback is weight: he carries 9st 12lb, giving weight to every other runner. But that is balanced by the fact we know significantly more about his actual ability than several of the lightly raced horses chasing him.

Green Dreamer is the biggest danger. Joseph O’Brien also trains him, Dylan Browne McMonagle rides, and he looked useful when comfortably winning his Leopardstown maiden. At around 9/4, however, the market is already pricing in substantial further improvement.

Noble Agenda is perhaps the most interesting outsider at 11/2 because his Down Royal debut victory has worked out well, while Oristown Boy arrives after winning at Galway and has a useful time figure.

Seven Nation Army nevertheless has the strongest combination of proven ability, current progression and price. Around 3/1 is enough to make him a bet; I wouldn’t chase him much shorter.