Model Rating: 94/100
Model Win Probability: 30%
Fair Odds: 7/3
Forecast: 3/1
Grade: A+

Spaceman is the runner I like most tomorrow because he remains considerably less exposed than almost everything he meets. He has had just four starts, with form figures 2-3-1-3, and already owns winning Wolverhampton form. His maiden success here came over five furlongs, when he travelled strongly before taking over entering the final furlong and beating Argy Bhaji by a length and a quarter.

His latest third at Southwell was another step forward despite circumstances not playing entirely to his strengths. The important point for the model is that his RPR has already reached 94 from an official mark of only 76, while his Topspeed figure is 67. That gives him one of the strongest combinations of established performance and handicap upside in this field. He also receives the three-year-old weight allowance and carries just 9st, compared with the older, more exposed horses above him in the handicap.

The move to seven furlongs is particularly interesting. Earlier in his career the view was already that he would improve once tackling 6f and beyond, so this does not look like an experimental step up in trip. His Wolverhampton win came despite the minimum distance arguably being short of his eventual optimum.

Oisin Orr knows him and Richard Fahey’s current Racing Post trainer indicator is positive. Wolverhampton’s sharp bends make position important, but Spaceman has enough tactical speed to avoid being detached and should get a useful tow into proceedings.

Percy’s Lad is respected after winning six days ago, but he now carries 10st 5lb including his penalty and is an exposed eight-year-old. Inside Story and Haaderr are also genuine dangers. Against them, Spaceman is the one whose current rating may still underestimate his ceiling. The current forecast has him around 3/1, with Percy’s Lad and Inside Story around 7/2