Model Rating: 90/100 | Win Probability: 16% | Fair Odds: 21/4 | Forecast: 9/1 | Grade: A+ Value

Barmyblade is the horse where the model is furthest away from the early market.

His recent record of 8-2-1-0-1-4 contains two wins and a second, and importantly he is already a course-and-distance winner. He runs from a mark of 57, carrying 9st 5lb, with David Allan riding for Tim Easterby. His most recent RPR of 73 is joint-best among several of the stronger form horses in this race, and his Topspeed figure of 63 is also competitive.

The latest fourth does not worry me much. This is a low-grade sprint where small changes in pace and track position can alter the finishing order considerably, and he has already demonstrated this season that his current mark is workable.

The trainer angle is another positive. Racing Post’s current card flags Tim Easterby at 43% on its recent indicator, and David Allan knows the horse.

The market currently has Edmond Halley around 3/1, Papa Don’t Preach 4/1 and Miss Rainbow 9/2, with Barmyblade forecast at 9/1. Yet Barmyblade’s RPR of 73 matches Edmond Halley’s while he brings the added advantage of proven C&D form.

The concern is consistency — this is still a Class 6 sprint and he is not bombproof — so I prefer an each-way approach if the price holds.