Model Rating: 91/100 | Grade: A / Value

This year’s Jacques le Marois looks unusually open after the absence of Bow Echo, with More Thunder taking over near the head of the market and Precise also a major player. Racing Post describes it as a very competitive renewal, which is exactly the kind of Group 1 where price becomes crucial rather than simply siding with the favourite.

Rayif interests me most because his price is allowing for more uncertainty than I think his actual chance deserves. He has already shown a level of mile form good enough to belong in this company, and a straight mile at Deauville should give him every opportunity to travel into the race without the tactical complications of a turning track. In a field where several of the market leaders are relatively closely matched on ability, getting around 13/2 about a horse with a genuine Group 1 chance is much more attractive to me than taking 3/1–7/2 about the obvious names. Sporting Life’s Ben Linfoot has also put Rayif up at 13/2, which independently aligns with the value angle.

The main danger for me is Precise. She is a three-year-old filly receiving weight from the older horses, and Ryan Moore rides for Aidan O’Brien; the current profile page confirms she lines up in this 10-runner Group 1 at 8st 9lb.

My model order

1. RAYIF — 13/2 — BEST VALUE BET
2. PRECISE — main danger
3. MORE THUNDER — respected but shorter than I want

Model fair price for Rayif: roughly 9/2–5/1
Available: around 13/2
BET: RAYIF — WIN