Model Rating: 93/100 | Win Probability: 39% | Fair Odds: 13/8 | Grade: A+

America Queen has been competing at a substantially higher level than tomorrow’s Listed assignment and that class drop is the single strongest angle in Sunday’s model.

Her juvenile form already established that she belongs at a very high level. She finished second in the Group 2 Lowther at York before subsequently finishing fourth in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes. She returned this season with another good performance when second in the Group 3 Nell Gwyn before tackling the Jersey at Royal Ascot and another Group 3 at York. Her latest fourth in the York Summer Stakes over six furlongs is considerably stronger form than most horses normally bring into a Listed fillies’ contest.

The move back to six furlongs is another positive. She has already shown Group-class ability at the trip and tomorrow she no longer needs to contend with the depth she faced at York or Royal Ascot. Pontefract’s six furlongs can reward tactical positioning, and America Queen has previously shown enough early pace to hold a useful position rather than requiring everything to fall perfectly from the rear.

The concern is price. The obvious class edge means bookmakers are unlikely to ignore her, so this isn’t one to take at any odds. But the model makes her comfortably the strongest winning prospect among Sunday’s genuinely bettable races.