Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 29% | Fair Odds: 5/2 | Grade: A

High Degree is a very different proposition. Rather than relying on a drop from Group company, this is a handicap-performance and equipment-change angle.

William Haggas’s four-year-old has been remarkably consistent in competitive company. He was second in an 11-runner Newbury Class 3 over this distance earlier in the season and followed that by finishing third of 12 at Sandown. At Musselburgh he met trouble before finishing fifth, and last time at Newmarket he again finished second in a Class 3 over tomorrow’s 1m2f trip.

That means his current rating around the low 90s is not based on one isolated effort — he has repeatedly shown that he can be competitive from this level. He is effective around a mile to ten furlongs, handles quick ground and has previously run well in much deeper handicaps, including at Ascot and Goodwood.

Tomorrow’s interesting change is the application of cheekpieces. With a horse who keeps running well without quite finishing the job, a small improvement in concentration can be enough to matter. Pontefract’s stiff finish also suits a horse proven at ten furlongs rather than one whose stamina is questionable.

There is one obvious negative: he has won just once despite regularly being well supported. So although the profile is strong, I want the market to compensate us for that conversion rate.