Model Rating: 88/100 | Win Probability: 16% | Fair Odds: 21/4 | Grade: A-

Scoville is another selection where the model is looking deeper than recent finishing positions.

His last two runs have come over a mile in major handicaps, and he has travelled well for a long way before failing to finish as strongly as required. Dropping back to seven furlongs could therefore be exactly what he needs. The shorter distance allows him to use his cruising speed without asking him to sustain it for the final furlong of a mile.

Newbury also suits horses who can travel within themselves before making a sustained challenge, rather than needing a sharp bend or very short straight.

This remains a strong Class 2 handicap, so there are dangers everywhere, and I would not want Scoville anywhere near favourite territory. But if the market offers 7/1–8/1 or bigger, the combination of class relief in distance terms and his underlying travel profile makes him attractive.