Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 30% | Fair Odds: 7/3 | Forecast: 100/30 | Grade: A+ Value

Amerilis has one of the strongest combinations of current form and underlying performance figures on the Irish cards.

Her recent record includes two runner-up finishes, and her current RPR of 72 and Topspeed figure of 62 compare extremely well with this field from a handicap mark of 67. She carries 9st 13lb and is drawn five of twelve, which gives Donagh O’Connor plenty of tactical flexibility in a five-furlong race where early positioning will be important.

What particularly attracts the model is that she is not relying on old form. Her latest second demonstrates that she is currently competitive from this sort of rating, and she now meets a field containing several horses with either less convincing recent profiles or bigger questions surrounding their current level.

Cashel Blue is probably the most dangerous rival. She has won over the trip and enters in better recent form than many, while Kiss Don’t Tell could improve significantly on handicap debut. That latter horse is particularly difficult to quantify because she has only three starts and could have more ability than a mark of 68 suggests.

Nevertheless, at around 100/30, Amerilis offers a much better blend of proven recent ability and price.