Model Rating: 89/100 | Model Win Probability: 18% | Fair Odds: 9/2 | Grade: A / Value

Croupier is the horse I want to take a chance with in one of tomorrow’s most competitive handicaps.

This is not a selection based simply on recent finishing positions. The attraction is his handicap position relative to his established ability. Racing Post’s current analysis describes him as well handicapped and makes him their selection in what they acknowledge is a wide-open race.

That distinction is important. Horses like Fifty Nifty, Molly Mac and the three-year-old Brocklesby Bill bring more immediately attractive form, but the market knows that. Croupier’s appeal lies in the possibility that his current mark significantly underestimates what he can still produce if conditions fall correctly.

Newmarket’s straight mile should allow him time to find a rhythm, and a properly-run race would help. The obvious negative is that this is a deep Class 3 handicap where the model only gives him around an 18% chance — so he is considerably less likely to win than Free World.

But that’s why price matters.

I would want around 7/1 or bigger before making this an official bet. At 5/1 or shorter the edge disappears.