Model Rating: 93/100 | Win Probability: 47% | Fair Odds: 11/10 | Forecast: 5/4 | Grade: A+

Free World is the strongest pure winning profile tomorrow. He remains very lightly raced for a five-year-old and produced a major step forward when winning comfortably at Catterick last week.

The key handicap angle is that he now races under a penalty but is officially 4lb well-in compared with the future mark already allotted to him by the handicapper. In simple terms, if he reproduces the level of that latest performance, tomorrow’s weight theoretically leaves him better treated than he will be when his revised rating takes effect. Racing Post’s current card specifically highlights that advantage and makes him a clear favourite at around 5/4.

He also has relatively little mileage compared with several exposed stayers in opposition, meaning there is a realistic possibility that the Catterick win was not his ceiling.

Rogue Empire has won three of his last four and therefore demands respect, while The Craftymaster is an obvious danger if Free World fails to reproduce his latest effort. But on current handicap terms the model makes Free World the strongest bet of the meeting.

The one issue is price. 5/4 is still acceptable, but I would not chase him into odds-on territory.