Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 25% | Fair Odds: 3/1 | Target: 5/1+ | Grade: A+

Storm Point is one I want to forgive for his latest defeat.

The three-year-old has already won two handicaps this season, beginning with a successful handicap debut at Kempton from 69. That form has subsequently worked out well because runner-up Lion Of Mali has franked it twice. Storm Point then won again at Newbury from 73 before failing to reproduce that form at the same venue last time.

He remains lightly raced, with just seven career appearances, and therefore has a very different profile to the more exposed handicappers around him. He now runs from 78, so the handicapper is asking another question, but there is enough evidence in his earlier progression to believe that mark is not necessarily his ceiling.

Kieran Shoemark rides for Ed Walker. The step to this mile-and-a-quarter setup looks workable and Salisbury’s long finish gives him time to settle into a rhythm rather than requiring an instant turn of foot.

The concern is straightforward: he must bounce back from his latest performance. That is why price is crucial. At 3/1 I would be less interested; around the 11/2 originally available, there is proper compensation.