Model Rating: 89/100 | Win Probability: 22% | Fair Odds: 7/2 | Forecast: 5/1 | Grade: A / Value

Obscenity is the more interesting price play on the Irish card.

His recent form figures include two wins and a second, and he is already a course-and-distance winner. That course evidence matters at Gowran, where positioning and the ability to handle the turns can count for plenty. He races here from an official mark of 86 carrying 9st, with Dylan Browne McMonagle riding for Joseph O’Brien.

His latest run was disappointing, but his underlying figures remain strong: he has posted a TS of 96 and RPR of 103, numbers that compare favourably with horses priced around him. Star Harbour has an RPR of 104 but is eight years old and more exposed; Dallas Star is rated 100 but carries top weight; War Rooms won last time but runs from 89.

The main concern is stall 9 of 11, because there is a risk of covering extra ground around Gowran if the race develops awkwardly. That is why the model has not pushed him into A+ territory.