Model Rating: 86/100 | Model win probability: 7% | Fair: 13/1 | Available: 25/1 | Grade: A- / EW

Valentine Catcher is the speculative play, but there are strong handicap reasons for believing 25/1 is too large.

He is currently rated 19lb below his last winning mark, although that does slightly flatter the statistic because he was demoted after passing the post first at Pontefract last season. More relevant is that he has already produced competitive efforts from marks in the mid-60s this year and is now significantly below that level.

There is also useful Carlisle evidence. He finished third here in May, and earlier in the campaign was runner-up at Pontefract behind Diamont Katie. The value of that run has increased because the winner subsequently advertised the form, while Valentine Catcher also finished ahead of Great, who went on to win twice.

His last couple of efforts have been disappointing, so this is absolutely not a bet on recent finishing form. It is a handicap/value bet based on old ability, a falling mark, existing course form and a huge price.

The model only gives him around a 7% chance of winning, so he is much less likely to score than Thunderous Love or Shiffra. But 33/1 implies only 3.8%, creating a meaningful discrepancy.