Model Rating: 92/100 | Win Probability: 31% | Fair Odds: 9/4 | Market: 5/2 | Grade: A Value

Rock Montreal is the juvenile selection, although naturally he carries more uncertainty than Queenstown or Silver Lake because he has raced only once.

Roger Varian’s colt made a striking winning debut at Yarmouth, showing clear greenness before finishing strongly enough to suggest that he has considerably more ability than the bare form figure reveals.

That potential matters here because several rivals are more exposed.

Nabati sets the established form standard after winning two of his three starts and is currently around 11/8, while Forbidden Fire was also impressive on debut for Andrew Balding.

The difference is price.

Rock Montreal is available around 5/2, and Timeform’s current analysis also places him ahead of Nabati, highlighting the likelihood of substantial improvement from his debut.

Doncaster’s straight seven furlongs should help. He can be allowed to settle from stall seven rather than becoming embroiled in an early positional battle, and the long straight gives Ray Dawson time to gradually wind him up.

The good-to-soft ground is the main unknown, but there is no immediate pedigree reason to think it will inconvenience him.

The strongest concern is experience. Nabati has already contested better races and Forbidden Fire may also improve sharply.

So Rock Montreal is not one to back aggressively at shorter prices.

But at 5/2, the model believes there is still a small edge.