Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 27% | Fair Odds: 11/4 | Market: 10/3 | Grade: A+ Value

Zermatt Star is one of the most interesting horses on Wednesday because her dramatic improvement last time has a very plausible explanation.

She had shown relatively little beforehand but was fitted with cheekpieces for the first time at Ripon eight days ago and suddenly produced a career-best performance, winning a Class 5 mile handicap by three lengths at 40/1. She travelled strongly from midfield, moved through the race around two furlongs out and went clear late.

Crucially, connections subsequently reported that the improvement appeared to come from the first-time cheekpieces and softer ground.

Both factors remain relevant tomorrow.

The cheekpieces stay on and Carlisle is currently Good to Soft, soft in places, so she should again get the slower surface that brought out such improvement at Ripon.

She carries a 6lb penalty from OR65, but the manner of last week’s victory suggests that rise is not necessarily enough to stop her. She recorded an RPR of 76, significantly exceeding her mark, and finished more than five lengths clear of the third.

David Nolan retains the ride, which is another positive after getting such a good response from her last week.

Tee Aitch Aye is a major danger and also comes here under a penalty after an emphatic Hamilton victory on soft ground. Hostility and Albemagic are respected too.

But Zermatt Star is a three-year-old who may only now have found the conditions and equipment combination that suits her.