Model Rating: 90/100 | Win Probability: 14% | Fair Odds: 6/1 | Forecast: 10/1 | Grade: A+ EW Value

The Bureau Club is more speculative than the other three, but this is exactly the type of runner the model wants at a double-figure price.

Her recent form has improved since a tongue-tie was introduced, including a narrow defeat and a subsequent fourth at Chepstow when she was not ideally positioned. Tomorrow she drops in grade and has been eased 5lb by the handicapper.

The return to Kempton is particularly interesting.

Earlier in the year she finished fourth in an eleven-runner mile maiden here after being slowly away and having plenty to do, but she stayed on strongly in the closing stages and was beaten less than two lengths. That was over this exact Standard-to-Slow Polytrack mile.

So unlike several rivals, there is already evidence that the surface and track suit.

The draw in stall one is also useful if Rossa Ryan can get her away cleanly. It gives him the opportunity to save ground and avoid being forced wide around Kempton.

That is also the main concern: The Bureau Club has repeatedly been slow from the stalls. Giving away several lengths in a 14-runner handicap would obviously make life difficult.

Viking Glory is the most likely winner after improving sharply in first-time cheekpieces at Brighton, while Violet Goldsmith arrives in consistent form. But the difference in price is substantial — Viking Glory is forecast around 9/4, compared with 10/1 The Bureau Club.

The model makes her roughly a 14% win chance, equivalent to around 6/1, so double figures represents genuine value.