Model Rating: 94/100 | Win Probability: 31% | Fair Odds: 9/4 | Target: 3/1+ | Grade: A+

High Fibre has been transformed since joining James Owen and looks capable of completing a three-timer under both codes.

He first took a big step forward when winning a 13-runner handicap hurdle at Market Rasen in July, beating Indemnity by 2¾ lengths and putting more than 20 lengths between himself and tomorrow’s rival Moon Chime. He then switched back to the Flat at Newmarket and confirmed that improvement by winning over two miles from OR79, beating Percy Shelley by 1¼ lengths with the third another 7½ lengths away.

That Newmarket performance is particularly relevant because tomorrow is another genuine staying Flat test. High Fibre has been raised 5lb to OR84, but that does not look excessive given how strongly the latest form was strung out.

He also already has useful York evidence. On his previous visit in July he finished a solid third over 1m4f, and the way he finished that race was another indication that much longer distances would suit. The improvement since stepping up to two miles supports that assessment.

Cieren Fallon retains the ride, while James Owen’s recent yard statistics on the current Racing Post card remain positive. High Fibre races in the visor again, so there is no equipment experiment to worry about.

The main concern is the change from good-to-firm ground at Newmarket to potentially easier conditions at York. However, he has performed creditably on ground with some ease over hurdles, and his stamina should become even more valuable if the race develops into a proper test.

Marbuzet is dangerous near 6/1 after winning seven days ago and escapes a penalty because that came in an apprentice contest. Percy Shelley is also respected, although High Fibre beat him convincingly at Newmarket.

The model makes High Fibre approximately 31%, equivalent to around 9/4.