Model Rating: 93/100 | Win Probability: 31% | Fair Odds: 9/4 | Market: 11/4 | Grade: A+

America Queen brings a very strong combination of improving three-year-old form and proven York form.

Richard Hughes’s filly produced a very respectable effort over this course and distance in July, finishing fourth in a Group 3 and beaten only around 1¾ lengths. She then took another significant step forward at Pontefract three weeks ago, winning a six-furlong conditions race by four lengths as the 11/10 favourite.

That victory has pushed her official rating to OR108, while Racing Post figures include an RPR of 123 and Topspeed of 101. Those numbers put her firmly in the mix even before allowing for the possibility of further improvement from a three-year-old filly who has only had a handful of starts.

She receives weight from the colts and older horses, carrying 9st, and Daniel Tudhope takes the ride.

The drop back into Listed company looks appropriate. She already showed she could compete strongly at Group 3 level here before producing an improved performance last time, so she is not being asked to suddenly bridge a major class gap.

The ground is the principal question. Her Pontefract success came on good-to-firm and her York Group 3 run also came on a sound surface. York is now Good, good to soft in places, so additional overnight rain would slightly weaken the selection.

Double Rush is a serious danger. His peak figures are actually stronger — OR110, TS110 and RPR128 — and he won three consecutive races before finishing eighth in the July Cup. That Group 1 run should not be judged too harshly now dropping markedly in class.

Behike also deserves respect after winning a 14-runner race at Deauville on good-to-soft ground, while Regional remains capable at this level.

But America Queen looks the runner whose current trajectory is still moving upwards. Her Pontefract performance was visually decisive, she has already run well over the York six and the weight structure suits.