Model Rating: 94/100 | Win Probability: 24% | Fair Odds: 3/1 | Market: 9/2 | Grade: A+

Paborus is the standout price/value combination on Saturday.

He remains very lightly raced for a five-year-old and returned from almost a full year off in June to win the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle over six furlongs, beating Marvelman by a length and a half with Symbol Of Honour further behind. What makes that run particularly strong is that Ed Bethell openly felt Paborus would need the race, so there was every reason to expect him to improve from it.

He subsequently ran over seven furlongs in the City Of York Stakes and was still right in contention entering the final furlong before the extra distance exposed him late. Marvelman finished ahead of him there, but tomorrow Paborus drops back to his optimum six furlongs, which gives him every chance of reversing that form. Sporting Life/Timeform also prefer Paborus to Marvelman on that basis.

The Heavy ground does not worry me as much as it does with several rivals. Paborus has previously won on soft at Redcar and Bethell has repeatedly said the horse wants “a bit of juice” in the ground, even delaying runs during the summer because conditions were too quick.

Almeraq sets the official standard at OR119 and deserves respect after his Royal Ascot Group 1 win. Kind Of Blue is also highly effective with cut, while Marvelman is rated 117 and arrives after an excellent City Of York third.

But Paborus is still only rated 113, has far fewer miles on the clock and could yet improve past that figure now returned to his best trip.

At 9/2, the market is giving us much more room than I expected.