Model Rating: 90/100 | Win Probability: 15% | Fair Odds: 11/2 | Market: 8/1 | Grade: A+ EW Value

Chosen One is the more speculative selection, but the price gives us room.

Donnacha O’Brien’s three-year-old remains a maiden, yet she has already shown enough to suggest that her opening handicap mark of OR69 could be lenient. Her best performance came when finishing second in a maiden at Down Royal in July, and she was better than the bare result at Cork last time when encountering trouble in running.

That Cork run came in first-time cheekpieces, but they are removed tomorrow and a tongue-tie is applied for the first time.

That equipment change is interesting because it suggests connections are still trying to unlock more rather than simply accepting her current level.

She also steps into handicap company against largely exposed opposition. Sadhbh Tormey claims 2lb, effectively taking a little more pressure off an already potentially workable mark.

The distance is the question. She moves up significantly in trip, but her pedigree and racing style both offer encouragement that around ten furlongs may suit better than the shorter races she has been contesting.

There are plenty of credible rivals. Sinbad My Dad heads the market around 3/1, Sweet Baby Zou is around 11/2, Darkdeserthighway 5/1 and Hexagonal around 4/1. Sporting Life/Timeform also put Chosen One forward as their preferred runner at 8/1, specifically highlighting her opening mark and potential improvement.

Because this is a large apprentice handicap, the win probability remains modest.