Model Rating: 89/100 | Win Probability: 29% | Fair Odds: 5/2 | Market: 3/1 | Grade: A

Profit Surge gets the Irish vote, although this is one where the soft ground prevents me giving her an A+ rating.

She is a consistent five-year-old who has already demonstrated that this company suits her, and tomorrow she returns to claiming company having won on her only previous start in this grade. Sporting Life/Timeform also make her their first choice.

There is also a significant stable change.

Profit Surge makes her first start for Ian Donoghue, and these claiming races can be particularly suitable opportunities for horses moving between yards because the opposition is generally exposed and the weight structure is transparent.

She carries 9st2lb, giving her a useful pull with several of the more obvious rivals.

The race itself has nine runners and the market is remarkably compressed: Profit Surge is around 3/1, Tax Me Later 7/2, Quinta Girl, Star Of Beauty and Minaun View all around 4/1.

That tells us this is competitive rather than one horse dominating on established ability.

The main reservation is the going. Gowran was initially listed much quicker but the latest Racing Post card shows Soft, so previous quick-ground assumptions have to be discarded.

That materially reduces my confidence and is exactly why she sits below Mister Sox and Variety Act despite being shorter in the betting.

However, her consistency, previous claiming success and suitable mile trip still make 3/1 acceptable.

Minaun View is probably the biggest danger, while Star Of Beauty is capable if reproducing her stronger maiden form.