Model Rating: 93/100 | Win Probability: 18% | Fair Odds: 9/2 | Forecast: ~6/1 | Grade: A+ Value

Mister Sox is the strongest handicap/value angle.

He is an exposed six-year-old, but unlike many exposed sprinters there is a very specific reason to think tomorrow’s mark understates his chance at this particular track.

Mister Sox won twice at Ripon during 2025 from OR77. He now races from just OR72, some 5lb lower than those winning marks.

His latest run suggests the handicapper may have gone far enough.

Returning over this C&D on 15 August, he finished fifth of 20, beaten only around 1½ lengths, despite racing on the less advantageous side of the field. He effectively performed best among the runners who raced in his group and competes tomorrow from the same OR72.

That performance is much more important than simply seeing another ‘5’ in his form figures.

The rain is unlikely to cause him a major problem either. He has plenty of previous experience on easy ground, including useful efforts in considerably stronger company, and tomorrow represents a drop back into an ordinary Class 4.

Sean Kirrane knows him well and Tim Easterby has repeatedly targeted Ripon with this horse. Course knowledge is particularly useful in six-furlong handicaps here, where positioning relative to the favoured strip can have a major impact.

Almarada Prince is an obvious danger and currently heads the forecast around 11/4. Farandaway is around 7/2, with Goyard and Mister Sox approximately 6/1.

I’m much happier taking 6/1 about a proven dual course winner now 5lb below those winning marks than 11/4 about the favourite.