Model Rating: 91/100 | Win Probability: 27% | Fair Odds: 11/4 | Market: 7/2 | Grade: A Value

Dion Baker is a much stronger selection at 7/2 than the bare form figures initially make him appear.

The seven-year-old has been revitalised this summer, winning back-to-back races at Yarmouth and Brighton before continuing to run well from higher handicap marks. He won over this exact Brighton trip in July from OR59, having already won at Yarmouth, and has since shown he can remain competitive from OR73.

The key piece of form is his course-and-distance second to Serenity Dream on 6 August.

Dion Baker led that day and was beaten 1½ lengths. Serenity Dream subsequently carries a higher mark into tomorrow’s rematch, while the revised terms give Dion Baker a better chance of turning the form around.

His latest ninth at Brighton looks poor until you analyse the race.

He dropped to around six furlongs and stepped into a Class 2 handicap, yet was beaten only a little over two lengths after racing prominently. Tomorrow he moves back up to seven furlongs and drops all the way into Class 5 company.

That combination is important.

Dion Baker has generally been at his best when allowed to bowl along rhythmically near the front. The small six-runner field reduces the chance of him being forced into an unsustainable battle for position and gives Darragh Keenan the opportunity to dictate.

His mark remains OR73, but recent RPRs around 79 indicate that figure is not obviously beyond him.

Serenity Dream is the deserving favourite at 11/8 after consecutive wins, but he has now climbed again in the weights. Dion Baker is 7/2, while Tattie Bogle is also 7/2.

At those prices I would rather back Dion Baker to reverse the form than take 11/8 about Serenity Dream completing the hat-trick.