Model Rating: 92/100 | Win Probability: 24% | Fair Odds: 13/4 | Market: 5/1 | Grade: A+ Value

Faiyum looks overpriced at around 5/1 given what she achieved last season.

Ger Lyons’ filly progressed rapidly through 2025, winning three of her four starts including a Group 3 over tomorrow’s 1m1f trip at Gowran. That already gives her proven ability at this exact level and distance.

Her return at the Curragh this year was encouraging, finishing third in another Group 3 over a mile, but she then disappointed when beaten at odds-on at Gowran.

That explains tomorrow’s price.

I’m prepared to forgive that run rather than assume she has regressed permanently. She has been given 116 days to recover, and Ger Lyons’ yard is now in much stronger form. Sporting Life/Timeform also identify the stable’s improved form as a significant factor.

Colin Keane retains the ride, which is another major positive.

This race is competitive. Miss Scott is lightly raced and progressive, Meriden has won five of her last six, while Pivotal Attack beat Meriden at Galway.

But Faiyum’s OR107 is the highest official rating among the principal contenders, she already owns a Group 3 victory at the distance and receives no awkward penalty for it.