Model Rating: 94/100 | Win Probability: 21% | Fair Odds: 15/4 | Available: 6/1 | Grade: A+ Value

Cloud Forest is the horse whose current mark looks most likely to underestimate him.

Saeed bin Suroor’s four-year-old has only had three career starts, producing form figures of 6-2-2, so there is still considerably more scope for improvement than with the majority of this 13-runner handicap. He now makes his handicap debut from OR83 and drops back to a mile after finishing second over 1m3f at Kempton last time.

That latest run is easy to view positively despite defeat. He was sent off odds-on, but the longer trip and different all-weather setup did not allow him to race as efficiently as he had previously. He wandered under pressure and looked much more like a horse lacking experience than one who had reached his ceiling. Returning to a straight mile on turf should allow him to travel behind a stronger gallop and use his speed more effectively.

The pedigree supports that view. He is by Blue Point and is closely related to high-class middle-distance performer Old Persian, but his own racing style has so far suggested that a strongly run mile may prove closer to his optimum at this stage.

Newbury should suit because its long straight gives inexperienced horses time to organise themselves rather than forcing an immediate tactical move around a bend. Hector Crouch is booked, and Cloud Forest carries 10st from OR83.

There are genuine dangers. Accademia is chasing a hat-trick, Distinct Spirit arrives in consistent form and Zatsgood has finished runner-up on his last two starts. Best Rate has already won three times this year.

However, all of those are more exposed.

The model gives Cloud Forest roughly a 21% chance, compared with the market’s implied probability of about 14% at 6/1.